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-Voters go to the polls tomorrow
BBC (Caribbean) – Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Patrick Manning is in the final weekend of a fight for his political life.
His surprising gamble to call elections more than two years ahead of the constitutional deadline, could backfire as analysts suggest that the vote is on a knife-edge.
Mr. Manning’s People’s National Movement (PNM) faces a determined challenge from an invigorated opposition coalition, led by the first woman to head a political party in the country, Kamla Persad-Bissessar.
“I think the race is very close and I don’t think anybody is going to win with a large majority,” political analyst Professor Selywn Ryan told BBC Caribbean.
Another, Dr. Bishnu Ragoonath, suggested this week that the result could even go 21-20 either way, though some polling appears to hand the edge to the alliance.
It means that there is all to campaign for in the period leading up to the 24 May vote.

Too close to call

Mr. Manning would likely welcome any extra minutes he can get as he has endured a difficult run-in.
His administration was already heavily weighed down by serious corruption allegations in the state construction agency, known as Udecott, and the pressure hasn’t eased.
In the past week, the Prime Minister has himself been unable to shake off persistent opposition claims that state funds may have been diverted to help build a church led by his spiritual adviser.
Mr. Manning has denied any improper direct dealings and nothing has been proven – but the episode has served to remind voters of his administration’s failure to effectively combat crime and corruption.
Mr. Manning may also be the victim of a dose of bad luck with the collapse of a portion of the official residence of the Republic’s President, Maxwell Richards, forcing him to move out.
Critics contrasted this development with what they say is the government’s wasteful penchant for building expensive monuments.
“A national disgrace”, is how the Trinidad Guardian newspaper described the neglect of “one of the country’s most magnificent heritage buildings.”

Ratings

Added to all of this is fatigue with Mr. Manning, who has been in office since 2002 and whose personal popularity ratings have plummeted to levels which have alarmed his party.
The PNM has also had to contend with the swift rise of Mrs. Persad-Bissessar, who is aiming to become Trinidad and Tobago’s first woman Prime Minister, and whose alliance of five opposition groups crosses the traditional ethnic dividing lines.
In January, she became leader of the dominant opposition United National Congress, which draws its membership mostly from nationals of Indian descent, and is the biggest rival to the PNM, which has majority black support.
Anecdotal evidence, some of which has been witnessed by BBC Caribbean, suggests that the alliance, dubbed The Peoples Partnership, may be attracting voters from the PNM.
Opinion polling at this election, perhaps because of its sudden nature, has been low-key, leading to old-fashioned political gazing.
Mrs. Persad Bissessar has shown fortitude in a crushing defeat in January of Basdeo Panday, who founded the UNC party back in 1989 and had been its leader until then.
She later kept her nerve by dumping Mr. Panday and two of his relatives as prospective election candidates.
The former Legal Affairs Minister has steered the People’s Partnership on a disciplined path, sidestepping governing party taunts about the fragility of coalitions in government.

Kamla’s route

She has avoided any serious gaffes, and even emerged unscathed from a sometimes faltering primetime television interview.
In fact, the PNM has sought to make play of her inexperience in leadership with the suggestion that she will not be able to hold together the coalition in the event they gain the big prize tomorrow.
The People’s Partnership have countered that Mr Manning flunked his own leadership test, having presided over an administration that effectively collapsed mid-term.
Professor Ryan said that Mrs. Persad-Bissessar appeared genuine about abandoning the race card and in her pursuit of a platform of inclusiveness – forcing the PNM to push even harder to try to shore up its base.
Apart from corruption and leadership, other issues on the campaign trail have included the astronomical increase in the murder rate, a controversial property tax increase proposal, and diversification away from dependence on energy.
Even so, oil and natural gas have not engendered the level of debate expected on this important sector which is at a critical juncture.
As for Mr. Manning, his future hinges on how his party performs. Defeat could hasten the end of a career spanning more than 40 years.
A political challenge would almost certainly come from his nemesis, Keith Rowley, whose public airing of concerns about the excesses at Udecott was linked to his dismissal from the cabinet two years ago.
Dr Rowley, a geologist like Mr. Manning, raised eyebrows this week when he took the somewhat unusual step of highlighting the possibility of a PNM loss.
“My first concern is that the PNM might lose. My other concern is that the other side might win,” he said, as he urged the faithful to vote in their numbers.
The PNM could win too, but just…