THE CAMPAIGN for Guyana’s fifth general elections on November 28, since the restoration of electoral democracy in October 1992 after 24 years of consecutive governance by the People’s National Congress (PNC)– is now in full swing across the estimated 250-mile coastland and far-flung interior regions of this CARICOM member state .
When nominations took place last Thursday for the presidential, parliamentary and regional lists of candidates, seven parties were identified by the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).
But it came as no surprise when last Monday just the trio of major parliamentary parties had secured the Commission’s approval of their lists of candidates            The approved parties competing for the presidency and 65-member parliament, are the incumbent People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), the main opposition A Partnership for National Unity (APNU—largely the old People’s National Congress (PNC) rebranded with a couple of insignificant minor parties; and the Alliance For Change (AFC)          
By yesterday, only the PPP/C had distributed its released election manifesto amid growing complaints to GECOM of repeated defacing and even destruction to its posters and banners.
Both APNU and AFC are expected to release their manifestos by weekend.
Last week, prior to the submission of nominations, a tracking poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) pointed to a return to state power for an unprecedented fifth consecutive five-year term by the incumbent PPP/C, now under the presidential leadership of Donald Ramotar, the party’s long-serving General Secretary.                                  

NACTA’s forecast                                                

Though NACTA may not have the impressive performance records of older and more popular pollsters in the region, it has managed to score reasonably well in forecasting results of elections in Trinidad and Tobago and countries of the Eastern Caribbean, as well as for Guyana.           
At the previous August 2006 national election in Guyana, the PPP/C, then under the presidential leadership of the now outgoing Head of State, Bharrat Jagdeo, had recorded its fourth consecutive victory by winning 36 of the 65 seats for the National Assembly—a gain of two from the 2001 poll—and representing some 54 percent of the valid votes declared.         
For their part, the then PNC, under the presidential and party leadership of Robert Corbin, won 22 seats, a loss of six, while the AFC, which was contesting its first national election following formation just over a year earlier, had succeeded in taking five seats, with the remaining two going to minority parties—The United Force (TUF) and ‘ROAR; (Guyana Action Party/Rise, Organise and Rebuild Guyana). For the coming November 28 poll, TUF’s leader, Manzoor Nadir, having earlier survived a leadership challenge, is contesting as a candidate of the PPP/C. Not surprising, as he is the incumbent party’s Minister of Labour. The surprises of significance would include those who are now new candidates of the APNU and AFC. With the PNC losing the previous two elections under current leader, Robert Corbin as presidential candidate, the party opted to face this month’s quite tough electoral challenge under the umbrella of APNU, with an ex-Brigadier of the Guyana Defence Force, David Granger, as its presidential candidate, while Corbin remains leader of the PNC.                                    

Among the “suprises”                                              

Granger, who has already become the focus of controversial campaign claims about his tenure in the army under the era of the late President Forbes Burnham, has as his running-mate as Prime Ministerial candidate, Dr Rupert Roopnarine. He was once a co-leader of the Working People’s Alliance (WPA), known as the party of the assassinated historian, Dr Walter Rodney, who was killed by a bomb planted by a former Sergeant of the Guyana Defence Force.          
As the saying goes, in party politics all things are possible. Now, therefore, the WPA, which is on record as holding the PNC responsible for the murder of Rodney, is one of APNU’s “partners” in the quest to prevent the PPP from retaining the government on November 28. And with the ex-GDF Brigadier as presidential candidate, Roopnarine, one in the frontline leadership to promote the circumstances of Rodney’s death, is APNU’s Prime Ministerial candidate.        
A further surprise that came from last week’s APNU’s list of candidates is that of former Police Commissioner, Winston Felix, who had retired amid a highly controversial broadcast of a tape-recorded telephone conversation he had with a then PNC parliamentarian at a time of serious gun-related killings and disruptions in urban and rural areas.          
Since murders, armed robberies and narco-trafficking crimes are part of the issues in the current election campaign, allegations have been flowing across platforms with APNU’s ex-GDF Granger and ex-top cop Felix being in the firing line, while the incumbent PPP/C and its outgoing President are verbally blasted with claims of sheltering drug traffickers and those involved in financial corruption.          
Not to be outdone, the AFC, whose leadership, for both the 2006 election as well as that for November 28, is made up of former defectors from both the PPP and PNC, has managed to spring a few surprises of its own with candidates who have departed from the two main parties. The best known among the defectors are Dr Richard Vanwest Charles, a son-in-law of the late President Burnham and a former Health Minister; and Moses Nagamootoo, longstanding stalwart of the PPP and a former Minister of Information. Both Charles and Nagamootoo believe their respective defections can contribute to the AFC’s influencing the defeat of the PPP on November 28. Nagamootoo’s ambition was to have been the PPP’s presidential candidate. But Dr ‘Joey’ Jagan, son of the late Presidents Dr Cheddi and Janet Jagan, is contemptuous of the boasts coming from APNU and AFC about defeat of the PPP, and was quite optimistic of the incumbent’s return to government, when he announced last week his own so-called “home coming” to the fold of the PPP, of which he was in earlier years critical.         
With 25 days to go, only the electorate of some 475,496 eligible voters know what will be the outcome when ballots are counted. According to GECOM, the current electoral register includes approximately 46 percent of voters who are between 18 and 35 years of age and, depending on their response, could prove decisive in determining on November 28 the next government of Guyana.