THE findings of an opinion survey conducted by NACTA in Trinidad over the last week show the incumbent Peoples Partnership (PP) government headed by Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar will retain office if an election were called now.
While the PP has lost support and is likely to lose several seats, it will still retain office though by a narrow majority.  Voters do not see any threat to the government for early elections and they do not view the opposition PNM as a viable alternative. The poll also shows Ministers Jack Warner (Transport), Roodal Moonilall (Housing), Glenn Ramadharsingh (Social Development), and Vasant Bharath (Agriculture) leading their colleagues in ratings for performance as well as in other measurements.  The polls show that in a contest for leadership of COP, a partner in the coalition, incumbent Minister Winston Dookeran (Finance) is preferred by a huge margin over challenger Minister Anil Roberts (Sports).
The poll was conducted by Vishnu Bisram. A 4% margin of error was found.
Asked which minister impresses the most with performance, Works and Transport Minister Warner leads with 41%, followed by Peoples Minister Ramadhar Singh with 19%, Agriculture Minister Bharath with 16%, and Housing Minister Moonilal with 13%.
Asked which minister or Member of Parliament has shown the most courage in taking on the PNM opposition and defending government’s decisions, Jack leads with 33% followed closely by Roodal with 30% and others trailing way behind.
Asked which minister or M.P has best handled the weight of high public office while remaining focused and effective, Jack again leads with 35% followed by Glenn with 17%, Vasant with 16 and Roodal with 15%.
Asked if they think the government will last its full term, 49% said yes or hope it lasts its full term as compared with 35% who said no with 16% not sure.
While there is disappointment among some supporters of the PP in the coalition’s governance, there is still a reservoir of goodwill for Ms. Persad-Bissessar hoping she will succeed in implementing the promises made during the campaign and doing things differently from the PNM.  Ms. Persad-Bissessar is credited with holding the coalition together.
If an election were called now, 41% said they will vote PP with PNM getting the nod from 31%. The rest are undecided or will not vote or want an alternative to the two parties.
Using the opinions from this survey and earlier NACTA polls to project the outcome of an election, the coalition partners will not be able to win any seat unless they contest a safe or marginal seats given it by the largest partner, the UNC. COP will only be able to retain the safe UNC St. Augustine seat, losing the others to the PNM.  And even in St. Augustine, most UNC supporters are not pleased with representation and servicing of the constituency – a recurring complaint from most of the constituencies.  The coalition also faces serious difficulties in the marginal Pointe-a-Pierre constituency which is represented by MSJ leader Errol McLeod who voters say has not been servicing his constituency.
Apart from the UNC, within Trinidad, no other party can win a seat on its own.  The UNC can win 21 or 22 seats (out of 41) just enough to form a government.  And even with a coalition arrangement, the UNC is not likely to improve on the 21/22 seats because the other parties have fallen out of favour with voters.
The findings show support for the COP has virtually evaporated from a year ago.  The UNC has also lost support but not enough to lose traditional (Indian) seats if an election were called now. The MSJ and NJAC can barely win a handful of support.
Asked who they prefer for leadership of the COP, Dookeran leads Roberts 49% to 26% with the others not expressing an opinion. Party election is scheduled for Jul 3.