ACCORDING to the findings of NACTA’s latest tracking survey conducted over the last couple of weeks with 1,600 voters, traditional voting patterns are holding in Trinidad with the opposition UNC making slight gains among African voters but enough to win seats in African dominated constituencies. The poll shows the PNM and the opposition UNC-led coalition is not facing any serious threat to their traditional “garrison” seats and as such will retain them.  The PNM remains dominant in the North and urban areas while the UNC-led coalition remains dominant in the South and rural areas. The battle for control of the government is being played out in eight “marginal” constituencies that are close in Trinidad and one that is close in Tobago.
NACTA has been engaged in an ongoing tracking survey over the last month to determine voter behaviour for the May 24 snap general election to assess the outcome of the elections.  The poll has interviewed hundreds of voters on a variety of issues and how they plan to vote. The poll’s findings are based on interviews randomly conducted with 1600 likely voters in intercept contact to represent the demographic composition of the population. The poll was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram.
Based on the poll’s findings, the UNC coalition will retain 14 of the seats it is currently defending and is also leading in Mayaro thanks to the appeal of Kamla Persad Bissessar.  While there were some initial doubts, the UNC is now comfortably ahead in the Cumuto/Manzanilla and Fyzabad seats which it won by a slender margin in 2007.  Throughout the nation, voters indicate they do not like several of the coalition’s candidates but are voting for Kamla.
The PNM is successfully defending 18 “safe” seats and faces a stiff challenge in a few of the marginals that will determine government formation.  While the UNC has put up a stiff challenge in Lopinot Bon Air West, La Horquetta/Talparo, Arouca Maloney, and Toco/Sangre Grande, the PNM is well ahead and will retain them.  The PNM has also warded off any threats to the three Diego Martin seats crossing the 50% mark in all of them.  While the PNM was struggling two weeks ago in several “traditional” seats, it appears to be gaining the upper hand over the last week with the presence of Keith Rowley on the campaign trail.  Hence, its comfort zone in 18 seats.
So the PNM leads 18-14 in the 32 traditional seats with nine seats still close and in play suggesting that the outcome could go either way.  NACTA will continue to poll till election eve.