— Guyana records 74 per cent increase in exports, ECLAC reports

THE year 2020 was laden with adversities and undoubtedly arduous, but Guyana was able to overcome the hurdles and remain resilient, recording 30.9 per cent economic growth at the end of the year. Guyana’s economic resilience was recorded by the United Nations (UN) in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report 2021, which was released recently.
According to the report, the world economy shrank 4.3 per cent in 2020, over two and a half times more than during the global financial crisis of 2009.
Developed economies, projected to see a four per cent output growth in 2021, shrank the most in 2020, by 5.6 per cent, due to economic shutdowns and subsequent waves of the pandemic, increasing the risk of premature austerity measures that would only derail recovery efforts globally.
Developing countries saw a less severe contraction at 2.5 per cent, with an expected rebound of 5.6 per cent in 2021, according to the estimates presented in the report.
Guyana, driven by developments in its budding oil and gas industry, and other economic sectors, managed to weather the ‘storm’ and record positive growth.
This positive trend is expected to continue in the near term, as the country is projected to record an 8.1 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year and an 8.5 per cent GDP growth in 2022.

The UN, however, warned that the devastating socio-economic impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will be felt for years to come unless smart investments in economic, societal and climate resilience ensure a robust and sustainable recovery of the global economy.
The modest global recovery of 4.7 per cent expected in 2021 would barely offset the losses of 2020, the UN said.
The report underscored that sustained recovery from the pandemic will depend not only on the size of the stimulus measures, and the quick rollout of vaccines, but also on the quality and efficacy of these measures to build resilience against future shocks.
“We are facing the worst health and economic crisis in 90 years. As we mourn the growing death toll, we must remember that the choices we make now will determine our collective future,” UN

Secretary-General, António Guterres said in the report.
He further added: “Let’s invest in an inclusive and sustainable future driven by smart policies, impactful investments, and a strong and effective multilateral system that places people at the heart of all socio-economic efforts.”
The pandemic has exposed the systemic vulnerability of the world economy. It has also shown that sustainable development—promoting inclusive and equitable growth, reducing inequality and enhancing environmental sustainability—can provide safeguards and resilience against future crisis.
According to the UN, there is clearly no sustainable development without resilience and there is no resilience without sustainable development.

RECOVERY
“Building economic, social and environmental resilience must guide the recovery from the crisis. Economic resilience with new fiscal and debt sustainability frameworks, societal resilience with universal social protection schemes and climate resilience with greater investments in the green economy must be the building blocks of a resilient recovery,” the UN said.
Latin America and the Caribbean in particular have suffered the devastating consequences of the pandemic, as evidenced by both the heavy human toll exacted and the massive economic damages incurred.
The health crisis has been accompanied by an economic downturn of historic proportions, which follows several years of disappointing growth.
The downturn was caused by prolonged national lockdowns, weaker merchandise exports and a collapse in tourism, triggering a sharp increase in the number of the poor. Moreover, the crisis has been responsible for further setbacks to achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by exacerbating deep-rooted structural inequalities, for example, between formal and informal workers, and between women and men.

Despite severe fiscal constraints, many of the region’s governments have adopted substantial stimulus packages in response to the pandemic. This support, along with monetary easing, a gradual lifting of restrictions and a pickup in global economic activity, has prompted a modest recovery starting in the second half of 2020.
Aggregate output is, however, expected to reach its pre-crisis level only by the end of 2023. In addition, the recovery will likely remain fragile and uneven, with significant political risks and the possibility of a debt crisis looming in several countries in the region.
Guyana, unlike other countries in the Caribbean, had to contend with the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and a protracted electoral process.
The year 2021, according to President, Dr. Irfaan Ali, will be the springboard from which Guyana will leap into recovery, rebuilding the economy, enhancing the people’s health and lifting up the vulnerable in groups in society.
“We must not remain a rich country of poor people,” the President affirmed, noting that the bounty of Guyana must be shared across the population.
This country having received payment of US$49.3 million for its fourth oil lift, had ended the year on a high note with approximately US$200 million being generated so far from the country’s nascent oil and gas sector.

OIL REVENUE
Considering the country’s oil revenue and other lucrative sources of income, the President believes that the standard of living and the quality of life must be lifted for all. Work will be rewarded; hard work will be rewarded even more, he said.
“Opportunities will be created to join in such work, and they will be made available to all. I recognise that there are communities within our society which, because of disadvantages of geographic location, will need more help than others to join our national advance,” President Ali reasoned.
The country will have to identify those communities, assess their needs, identify solutions, and implement plans to change their circumstances. This change will not occur overnight, it will take time. But every journey begins with a first step, the President said.

Guyana has a solid foundation to build on, as the country recorded a 74 per cent increase in exports last year.
This was according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in its International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2020.
“Guyana is a special case among the Caribbean economies, as it began exporting oil in the first half of the year (Bank of Guyana, 2020). This made it the country whose exports grew most during the period (74%),” the report stated.
In President Ali’s assessment, Guyana’s economic recovery is demonstrably underway, with the business communities in Georgetown and elsewhere reporting better performances over the recent holiday season, than any of the previous five years.
And this was achieved, even with the restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The President believes that there is more money in circulation, and more disposable income in people’s pockets than the country has witnessed in a long time.