Dear editor,

TODAY (Tuesday) is E Day – Election Day in America where hundreds of thousands of Guyanese are settled and their turnout is the highest so far in the history of their presence in America, going back the late 1960s. (More Guyanese Americans and their descendants live in America than Guyana). Today is also Election Day in Bihar, India, where a large number of Guyanese have traced their roots. The whole world is focusing on America and few Guyanese are concerned about the outcome of elections in Bihar. (I follow Bihar’s elections because I am an India political watcher having taught South Asian history for several years, and I conducted many opinion polls in India to determine popular support of political parties, but not for this election; polls suggest that the incumbent BJP alliance will prevail). In America, polls suggest that the Republican incumbent Donald Trump is going down to defeat by Democratic challenger Joe Biden. There are other candidates on the ballot, but they will not make much of a dent in the votes to affect the outcome in any of the states.
Guyanese are in the thick of the electoral contest in America, not as candidates or campaigners but as voters and poll workers. There is a lot of enthusiasm among Guyanese voters and many actually voted early while others tell this writer they will vote Tuesday. Few Guyanese volunteer for or donate to the election campaign. This writer volunteered for the Democratic campaign. As the labour leader of my teaching site for over 15 years, the union annually voted to endorse Democratic candidates and the leaders tow the line). Several Guyanese have been working at poll stations over the last two weeks for early voting and several will be on duty on November at schools and at senior centres. Schools have been closed to facilitate the electoral process, but it is not a holiday, although several businesses are closed.

Americans are uneasy about the outcome, fearing violence. Reports say guns have been sold out. Some “ red neck” racists have threatened violence. Guyanese constantly have queried my views on the outcome. Will it be a close outcome, a comfortable victory, a landslide, or a blowout? Will Trump accept defeat? Trump predicts victory. Biden also predicts victory. If Biden loses he will concede quietly, but he is not expected to lose if we go with the opinion polls. From his language, it does not appear that Trump is likely to accept defeat – he said he has a battery of lawyers ready to go to court on Tuesday night. I do not think the outcome wll be close, but a declaration or presumed winner may not be ready on Tuesday night. Once the outcome is a landslide, Trump will claim fraud and accept defeat. If it is close, he won’t throw in the towel – dragged in court.  I see a decisive victory as per my analysis of poll numbers.
The actual voting in America does not have an electoral system like Guyana’s, whereby the party or candidate with the most popular votes wins the presidency. There are 51 contests – each state plus Washington DC holds its own election without national involvement. The national government cannot instruct the states how to run their elections. Each state declares its own winner. Each state has an assigned number of electoral votes (EVs). The candidate that gets the most votes in a state wins its electoral votes and there is a significant Guyanese presence in several of the swing states such as Georgia, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan. Two states (seven votes) divide their EVs based on proportion of votes won. The EVs are added for each state won by each candidate. The candidate with at least 270 EVs wins the presidency regardless of amount of popular votes won. Right now, polls suggest that Biden will get between 279 and 351 EVs. It means, therefore, that he will win the presidency.  But it is possible that Trump can pull off a miracle with last-minute swing voters; votes can also be excluded from being counted if they arrive late at the counting place. The contests in several states are very close. Biden was way ahead in several states a few days ago, but the gap has narrowed with some states a dead heat. Nevertheless, 279 is the minimum projected for Biden, even if he were to lose the popular votes in the other states. My analysis sees Biden crossing the 300 mark. Although polls give Biden wins in Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, those states (62 EVs) would be very close and may very well go to Trump. But Biden does not need them to win the White House.

In 2016 Trump won comfortably (306-232 against Hillary Clinton). Polls suggest that if Trump were to win, it would be very narrow, just over 270. But Biden is projected to get a huge victory – a landslide or even a blowout. The last time there was a blowout was in 1980 and 1984 when Reagan swamped Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale respectively.
Obama won comfortably in 2008 and 2012.

Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram