CONTRARY to what Mr. Christopher Ram concluded “Bisram Got it Wrong” (SN Dec 9), it is Mr. Ram who got it all wrong and it is Mr. Vishnu Bisram who got it right.
A poll is an estimate of the outcome of an election and is generally applicable for up to the time it was conducted, especially if there are dynamic factors at play that will impact on electoral support for parties. And in the elections, Mr. Bisram identified several dynamic factors that were impacting on the outcome. Among them were turnout and ethnic voting.  It is interesting to note that Ram focuses on what he perceived as errors in the Bisram poll but not on his own party’s (APNU-PNC) poll.
In his last three polls released to the media, Mr. Bisram said the PPP’s support hovered around 50% (two of them below 50%) with the last one dated November 25, three days before the actual elections) showing the PPP at 52%.
The PPP actually got almost 49%. So the poll is within the margin of error and therefore Mr. Bisram is right. Mr. Bisram gave APNU (PNC) 34% and noted that Africans were returning to the PNC from the AFC and that it could actually get 40%. APNU got just over 40%. So the poll is right there also. The NACTA poll gave the AFC 14% and noted that the AFC’s African as well as Indian support was soft. Mr. Bisram noted that the Indians were splitting their votes and the Africans were consolidating for APNU and that he was uncertain whether the AFC can hold on to its African base or whether Indians will hold for AFC.
The outcome shows that the AFC lost most of African support and the Indians split their votes as Bisram correctly found in the polls. It is noted that the AFC got 11% support. So the poll is right again. The poll said the TUF had negligible support and that was the actual outcome.
With regards to each of the regions, the changing dynamic situation regarding ethnic voting, which Mr. Bisram pointed out in his poll findings published in the media, account for minor differences between findings and actual results.
In his evaluation of the poll, Mr. Ram did not factor into his analysis that the poll reflected findings three days before the elections and the ground situation was rapidly changing.
Overall, it was a good poll and Mr. Bisram ought to be applauded for his work. And yes he should work harder to produce results that mirror exactly the outcome of the elections. Mr. Ram supported APNU in the elections. How about the APNU Clive Thomas poll or the AFC Bhaskar Sharma poll with the former saying APNU would win and the latter saying AFC would win. APNU predicted a turnout of 89%. Mr. Bisram predicted a turnout of 75%. The actual turnout was 73%. So who is right there?