INDIA completed its fourth phase of voting last Wednesday for 85 seats and the fifth and final phase of the elections was on Wednesday for 86 seats. There is widespread voter apathy in India in an issue-less campaign with voters simply fed up of politicians who make promises but do not deliver on them. Voter turnout has been relatively low with the first phase at 60%, second phase at 55%, third phase at 50% and fourth phase at 57%. So far, the pollsters have not given any hint on which party is ahead after a month’s voting.

There are four political combinations contesting the elections which included a number of regional and caste-based parties and two national parties.

The two national parties are the ruling Congress of the Gandhi fame and the opposition BJP with each heading an alliance of parties called UPA and NDA respectively. The Congress has governed India for about 45 years while the NDA was the last government ruling from 1998 to 2004.

When I was in India in February and re-visited in April, it appeared to me that the BJP and the NDA was ahead in seat projections based on my own “informal polling” and analysis from anti-incumbency feelings on the ground. However, three polls put the UPA well ahead and one poll had the outcome almost a tie. The polls also had the Congress beating the BJP by about 20 seats. I had the two parties, from an assessment (not polling) almost dead heat with the edge going to the BJP because of anti-incumbency. The Congress won 143 seats in the last election and will get about 5 more seats this election although the polls give it about 160. The BJP had 138 seats last election and the polls give it 130 for this election. I give the BJP about 150 seats with a chance in 10 others and possibly 15 depending on turnout and how anti-BJP votes are split.

Based on my projection, the incumbent Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh will not return as P.M although the polls say he will return as P.M. Manmohan is a brilliant economist who the G-20 leaders turned to last November in Washington DC and again last month in London for solutions to the global economic crisis. But he has been seen as a weak political leader and voters indicated to me they want a strong leader. Hence, they were against Manmohan and the Congress returning to office.

No party or alliance will get a majority in the election (in spite of what they say publicly) and will depend on additional allies to form a government. Whichever party gets the most seats will be in a better position to lead a government. But the President does not have to call on the party with the most seats to form the government. However, a Congress Party spokesperson said he is confident the President, who comes from the Congress, will ask Manmohan (even if he does not have the most seats) to lead a government. That will not be acceptable and I do not think he will endeavor such a task. Instead, I see him offering his resignation right after the election and will also leave parliament to accept responsibility for the Congress defeat, if indeed the Congress loses.

In my view, the PM’s post will be between Opposition Leader LK Advani and the incumbent Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar because he is more acceptable among anti-BJP leaders than Manmohan. If the NDA wins 200 seats, the President will have no choice but to call on Advani to try to form a government which will be a difficult task and probably a short term government given that he will need an additional 73 seats. The NDA should be able to attract other allies like the Madrassis party (AIADMK alliance about 30 seats), the Chamar or Dalit party (about 30 seats), the Telegu alliance (about 20 seats), and a few others for an additional 20 seats. Incidentallly, the polls give the UPA about 200 seats which does snot come close to my projection. If both the UPA and NDA fall short of 200 seats, then another leader will make a play for the top post. Either way, the next government will be an unstable alliance in a hung assembly.
VISHNU BISRAM