SINCE Sheila Holder, M.P for AFC claims that Vishnu Bisram and the NACTA polls have never accurately predicted an election outside of Trinidad and Guyana; I wish to note that NACTA correctly predicted the outcome of elections in Aruba and Tobago this year. Holder’s problem, as is Freddie Kissoon’s, is the inability to accept the fact that the PPP, according to the poll’s findings, remains the most popular party in Guyana. Holder and Kissoon rely on Dick Morris polls which find the AFC as the most popular party.

On accuracy of polls, Morris was wrong in Guyana. But last week, Mr. Bisram penned in the Guyana papers that his findings in Aruba showed the opposition AVP (headed by Mike Eman) was heading for a victory over the incumbent MEP of defending Prime Minister Nelson Oduber. The results of the Sept 25 elections show AVP won 12 seats, MEP 8 seats and a minor party 1 seat.

I am a NYC teacher. Myself and another NYC teacher and several other NACTA affiliates traveled to Tobago (on their own expenses) to assist Bisram with his polls to determine the outcome of the island’s Assembly elections held last January. NACTA initially predicted 9-3 in favor of the incumbent PNM against the opposition TOP in early polling. Later, on the eve of the elections, the tracking poll showed 8-3 in favor of PNM with one seat too close to call. The final result was 8-4 with one seat won by TOP by a handful of votes.

I also wish to note that in the 2005 Tobago Assembly elections, NACTA predicted 11-0 in favor of PNM with one seat to close to call. The PNM won 11-1 with the lone opposition seat won by some 14 votes. The NACTA findings were published in the Trinidad papers as well as in SN.
VASSAN RAMRACHA