The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has proven to be a pervasive, catastrophic force this year, globally. At home in Guyana, it has already claimed less than 10 lives in the short period it has been here. In addition to its devastating impact on health and the health system, however, COVID-19 has wider social and economic implications, which we are now beginning to feel the brunt of.

This pandemic has been a topic of constant and seemingly relentless discussion in my academics, and it just so happened that this semester I ventured into the world of macroeconomics for the first time. For a greater part of this semester, right up until physical, realtime classes were cancelled, understanding inflation and recession in the economy were major focal points. For me, earlier on, my mind raced drawing the connection between Guyana’s burgeoning petroleum sector and how inflation could taper the benefits of that. But now, all I seem to think about is how the threat of a recession in the global economy and how that would filter down to the local economies.

Now, a textbook (or, textbook-inspired) definition of a recession is a period of economic decline in an economy, generally indicated by a reduction in the economy’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- which is the total output of the economy. I think we’re currently in a pre-recession area, where productivity is gradually (but perhaps exponentially) declining.

In response to the pandemic, governments have restricted the operations of businesses and these have only intensified as the weeks went by. Right in Guyana, we saw that first the ports of entry were shut, then business operations were limited to certain hours, and then non-essential businesses and workplaces were slowly shutting. Just as with the rest of the world, productivity in almost every sector has been on the decline, and it doesn’t take an economist to understand that this reduction in productivity could have a large negative impact on local economies and citizens.

In situations like these (even though this is an unprecedented situation), resources will gradually become more and more scarce and when that happens, the glaring inequities in society will be exposed. The longer the pandemic pervades, and the longer Guyana goes without resuming productivity at the level it was before, more and more people will be disproportionately affected in society. Think about the reality of a middle-level worker who has been able to amass some amount of savings that can aid him/her even if there is a pay cut versus the reality of a low-level worker who isn’t, perhaps, part of the more formal job sector- and how this slowdown in productivity across the board affects their survival. In education, consider that internet penetration is not at a very high level in Guyana and not every student has the means to attend online classes.

The economic impact of COVID-19 disproportionately affects people at different levels of society and I cannot stress enough how necessary it is for some stimulus package or some other social safety net to be brought out by the government to help keep the economy, and (hopefully) by extension, the citizens afloat.

Then, there’s the interplay between the economic impact and social impacts. This interplay is one that I am very much interested in, and I hope academia in Guyana will be quick on the draw in elucidating this further. For now, though, I have a few banal thoughts guided by what I’ve gathered on this academic journey so far, and from keeping in the know.

The social impact resulting from the pre-recession conditions aside, I’m interested in the relationship between COVID-19 and mental health. Over this past week, I was fortunate to be able to join an online seminar hosted by the Rotary Club of San Fernando South (in Trinidad) on this topic.

During this session, Trinidadian Clinical Therapist and Traumatologist, Hanif Benjamin highlighted that two major diagnoses that can stem from COVID-19 are depression and anxiety. Both of these could be triggered by a myriad of factors including the social distancing occurrence, the isolation, the barrage of information via the news and social media platforms and also, the fear of uncertainty as to when this pandemic will be over and what damage it would have caused by then.

I believe that while most of us are at home and are trying to ‘flatten the curve’ by reducing the possibility of the transmission of the coronavirus, we should take the time to focus on ensuring that we maintain good mental wellness. I can tell you, I have had days where I couldn’t find the zeal to do anything productive because I wasn’t able to return home in time.

The therapist gave a few simple suggestions on how to take care of your mental health during this time. He noted that as much as reasonably possible, we should try to maintain a semblance of the daily routine we had before, limit exposure to the barrage of information and refer only to trusted sources and find the time to engage with your loved ones, even if it is a simple five-minute phone call every few days.

We are in uncertain times, for sure. But I hope we can take the time to think about ourselves and the people around us.