Only two decades ago the world was faced with the real danger of being destroyed by nuclear weapons. During the height of the Cold War, NATO and Warsaw Pact countries had some 10,000 missiles aimed at each other. With the nuclear triad of ICBMs, SLBMs, and Long Range Bombers, any escalation to nuclear war would have meant Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

Today the threat of strategic nuclear confrontation is gone. World leaders and people in all parts of the globe are relieved, and rightfully so. But we should be careful, because there is another possible catastrophe at hand. The world as we know it is under severe threat from massive environmental changes. Unlike the spectacular damage done by a nuclear strike, the global environment is silently but systematically being destroyed by an amalgam of natural and anthropogenic factors. All states have a responsibility to act now in stemming this path of destruction.

President Bharrat Jagdeo has taken this challenge seriously and has committed his government to pursue a policy of environmentally sustainable growth through a Low Carbon Development Strategy. Key to this is the 15 million hectares of rainforest in Guyana. Jagdeo is bent on maximising the economic value of Guyana’s rainforest not only for national development, but for the ‘common heritage of mankind’.

For now, there are four key elements to note about Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy.

Firstly, Guyana has a scarce resource in its millions of hectares of rainforest. From a narrow national point of view, Guyana can choose to allow further logging and other forestry practices that will bring immediate economic benefits to the country. The Economic Value to the Nation (EVN) for Guyana’s rainforest is about US$600 million.

Secondly, however, further deforestation would add to the already alarming rate at which CO2 and other green house emissions are being released through deforestation. It must be noted that deforestation contributes about seventeen percent of CO2 emissions – i.e. the same as that released through global transportation.

While harvesting Guyana’s forest can bring immediate benefits to this developing country, the President is mindful of the massive opportunity cost to the world. The Economic Value to the World (EVW) of Guyana’s rainforest is estimated at about US$40 billion.

Thirdly, therefore, President Jagdeo is keen on pursuing a development strategy that preserves the 15 million hectares of rainforest. A policy of Avoided Deforestation is critical in this regard. Avoided deforestation, however, is not compensated within the current framework of the Kyoto Protocol. This is so because forestry is not included in the current structure of the global carbon market(s).

Fourth, and finally, for Guyana (and other countries rich in rainforest resources) to contribute meaningfully to global green house emissions management, it must receive the financial and institutional support of multilateral organisations and developed countries. Guyana is prepared to take up the challenge in dealing with climate change; the developed world must now step up to the plate and do its part. Norway has already shown leadership in this regard. Others must follow, and follow soon.

Within Guyana itself, President Jagdeo has been taking the idea of Low Carbon Development Strategy directly to the people. He wants Guyanese to be engaged in a process of national consensus building about economic and social development. The response from the Guyanese population so far has been overwhelmingly positive, and the President is optimistic that we are at the forefront of a new path to development.