AS Guyanese head to the polls on September 1, the most important signal to markets will be twofold: a credible, peaceful outcome delivered without delay, and continuity in the constructive relationship between the government and investors, regardless of the outcome at the polls.

In 2020, results from the March 2 vote were only declared on August 2 after a prolonged crisis. That saga must not repeat if Guyana is to safeguard investor confidence and continue to steer an efficient oil sector.

The oil sector enters election week with its strongest momentum yet. ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project reached first oil on August 8 via the ONE GUYANA Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel. The first Yellowtail cargo, a million barrels of Golden Arrowhead, has loaded and is headed to Europe. Guyana’s installed capacity is now above 900,000 barrels per day (b/d). This has been the product of an attractive framework and predictable regulation.

Contract sanctity matters too. The government has championed respect for contracts, particularly the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement (PSA) which governs all current oil production offshore. Whatever the political debate, investors watch for a clear post-election message that signed agreements will be honoured.

Guyana has already modernised the legislation for future acreage with the Petroleum Activities Act (2023) and updated model PSA (10 per cent royalty, 65 per cent cost-recovery cap, 10 per cent corporate tax). These reforms raised the state take for future projects while codifying clearer rules, which has helped preserve confidence even as laws become stricter. Unilateral attempts to rewrite existing contracts, by contrast, risk disputes and disruptions to the economic momentum Guyana has enjoyed since first oil. The success of updates to legislation, such as the Local Content Act, will also depend on constructive dialogue.

Sustained development depends on keeping the project pipeline moving and completing enabling infrastructure, most notably the massive offshore projects in planning and development and the gas-to-energy project at Wales. The government says the project will underpin a 50 per cent cut in electricity rates and improve reliability. The economic opportunity from cheaper, reliable electricity is broad-based if the project is completed and commissioned efficiently.

But political stability is the key pillar that will help determine the success of all these efforts. International observers, including the Commonwealth and a Carter Centre mission, are on the ground. After the close of polls, efficient transparent tabulation and communication from the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) will reassure citizens and investors alike. The standard to meet is simple: free, fair, credible polls and a prompt result accepted by all parties. Regardless of who wins, stability, honoured contracts, and constructive relationships with investors will be instrumental for Guyana’s prosperity to continue.