TRINIDAD and Tobago has inked what its leaders call a “historic” production sharing contract with ExxonMobil, marking the U.S. giant’s return to the country after more than two decades.
The Ultra Deep One Block, at more than 7,000 square kilometres, is bigger than the entire landmass of Trinidad and Tobago and lies in water depths beyond 2,000 metres. Exxon’s commitments include seismic surveys, research and training contributions, and eventually exploration drilling, with the potential for up to US$21 billion to develop any commercial discovery.
Exxon is betting on acreage that remains untested. In many ways, the ultra-deepwater play in Trinidad today resembles the Stabroek Block in Guyana a decade ago. It is high-risk and uncertain. Back then, Exxon had no proof that commercial oil even existed offshore Guyana. The first discovery, Liza in 2015, changed everything. Since then, more than 30 significant finds have been made, Guyana’s production has climbed to more than 650,000 barrels per day across three floating production vessels, with a fourth vessel now producing. Exxon’s total investment has surpassed US$40 billion.
By contrast, no discoveries have been made yet in Trinidad’s Ultra Deep One. But the story unfolding in Guyana has clearly influenced Exxon’s strategy. ExxonMobil’s Head of Global Exploration, John Ardill, openly admitted that the oil major is drawing on its Guyana playbook, leveraging lessons learned to accelerate progress in Trinidad. The difference, they argue, is that while Guyana had to build everything from scratch, Trinidad has an established industry, ports, and a skilled workforce that should allow operations to move even faster.
That distinction is crucial. Guyana was a clean slate when it signed the 2016 production sharing agreement with ExxonMobil. The government had no oil history, existing infrastructure, or offshore workforce to draw upon. Meanwhile, Trinidad has been an oil and gas country for over a century. It has long exported liquefied natural gas (LNG), hosted global operators, and cultivated generations of energy expertise. Comparing the two countries (and contracts) without accounting for those differences would be misleading. The leverage each country faced when negotiating with Exxon was fundamentally different.
Both cases demonstrate, however, that geology alone does not bring investment. Guyana’s success was not only about luck during exploration, but also about creating a stable, supportive environment that allowed Exxon and its partners to move at unprecedented speed from discovery to production. Trinidad’s leaders now want that formula replicated in their own waters.
Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar put it clearly at the contract signing: “Investment goes where it’s welcomed and stays where it is well treated.” That line connects Guyana’s spectacular rise with Trinidad’s new deepwater push. Investor capital is critical, and in a time of uncertainty, companies like ExxonMobil will commit their billions only where governments prove themselves consistent and welcoming.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.