THE rising consensus in Guyana at the moment is that the PPP will be re-elected. What divides opinion is the margin of victory. There are three viewpoints on the numbers. One – there will be a tight race, but the PPP will go beyond its one-seat majority. Secondly, there is the widespread belief that the PPP will pick up many more seats than its present configuration.
The third position of some people, but particularly those in PPP circles, is that a two-thirds majority is possible. The contention of this article is that the largeness of the PPP’ votes will be decided by the Irfaan Ali variable. A myriad of factors explain an election victory.
First, there is the terrible sight of a non-performing government. Two examples should suffice. The Rishi Sunak regime in the UK was simply in tatters. The British people lost respect and hope in the Conservative Government. The Labour Party victory was the result of an atrocious incumbent and nothing else.
In Trinidad, the Rowley Government had reached the point of no return. Whoever headed the opposition would have won, so no credit should be given to Kamla Bissessar. She is not an exciting politician. Secondly, an incumbent can lose if the president and prime minister have to find a successor and the successor is a terrible, lacklustre choice. The stupidity of selecting Kamala Harris will become a permanent blot on the face of the American Democratic Party.
Thirdly, an election victory can be secured through the dialectical role of the powerful, penetrating, charismatic, and enigmatic individual. The American electorate voted not for the Republican Party candidate but for the man, Trump himself. It is possible if the Republicans had their own candidate and Trump ran as an independent. He still would have won. Trump’s victory has to be put down to the concept known as the role of the individual in history. In Barbados, it was impossible for Mia Mottley not to be re-elected. Her personality was the decisive factor.
We come now to Irfaan Ali. The PPP will achieve victory in September because an oil economy has changed the face of Guyana. It is basic political theory that will continue to exist that if a government has the resources to develop a country, voters will be grateful.
It is an absolutely twisted mind that can look at the transformation of Guyana over the past five years and deny it. The debate will go on forever that the PPP became accepted and popular because it had national wealth to effect a deep transformation of the totality of Guyana. How can one fault a ruling party for becoming popular and reassured of electoral victory if the economy allowed it to spread the national wealth? That is the reality of the world of politics.
The PPP’s achievements and accomplishments (there are subtle differences in the two words) are impressive. It is hard for the decent, nationalistic mind to reject that reality. This reality will cause it to become the next government. I contend that although it will secure a majority vote, the personality of Irfaan Ali will allow the PPP to go far beyond its one-seat majority.
My deeply held belief is that a two-thirds majority is out of reach because the PPP will need ten more seats. However, I am prepared to say that it is a possibility due to the role Irfaan Ali will play, as Trump and Mottley did. I am convinced that the PPP will receive multi-racial votes and votes across demographic fences and ballots that cut across class and gender, and this will be due to the personality of Ali.
People are fascinated by the emergence of Ali and what he has become. One reason is that the present generation in this country has not seen a leader in another country who had an inviting style like Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali. Ali is well-liked throughout Guyana, and one of the sustaining factors in this psychological process is that people believe he is a good man who means well for Guyana.
I think the perception of Ali is penetratingly positive in this country, and out of this frame of mind, people want to see him rule for a second term. From the time Ali became a different leader from what the Caribbean produced before, I have argued that he stands a huge chance of eclipsing all previous Caribbean leaders. Guyanese are going to hand the PPP its biggest majority in the history of electoral competition in Guyana, and that will be solely because of the role of the individual in history. In Guyana’s case, that dialectical role will be played by Mohamed Irfaan Ali.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.