There are many dimensions to the current Israeli/Palestinian conflict that cry out for analysis. I can think of five – the neat split between White and non-White countries; the use of the tragedy for political purposes in the US and UK by President Biden and Prime Minister Sunak; the unbelievable support of Black upper class for Israel in the US; the loss of American influence in the Third World after its current stance; the space created for countries to invade other lands.
Over the coming days, I will analyse each of these angles. But I will start with Biden and Sunak. Mr. Sunak is set to lose the next election in a gigantic way. The polls put Labour at 44 percent as against 28 for the Conservatives. Even if there is a margin of error of 15 percent (normally the error margin is not that high), the polls cannot be so horribly off to give the Conservatives victory. The polls show many top leaders, including PM Sunak, will lose their seats.

Across the US, the polls have Trump and Biden neck and neck. It has to be a devastating dent to the credibility of Mr. Biden to have someone like Trump leading him. In the normal, civilised world, Trump should be nowhere near Biden in any poll. Mr. Trump is just not a normal human.

What is even worrying for Biden is that Trump is way ahead of his Republican contenders. My take is if Mr. Biden runs, he may lose to Trump, but he will definitely lose to another Republican candidate. My bet is if the Republicans draft in Mitt Romney, with an impressive vice-presidential candidate, he will beat Biden and Harris.
Biden isn’t going anywhere. He will not change his mind. He is locked in with Harris because he needs the Black votes, but Harris is a lost cause. So in the midst of this daunting electoral prospect, came the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And guess what, lawmakers from both parties are rushing to Israel. Biden is in Israel.
Elections are just a year away in the US and the support for Israel by US lawmakers and governors and government ministers have resulted in extreme language that is extremely shocking. President Biden on his arrival in Israel, without evidence blames Hamas for the bombing of a hospital in Gaza that took the lives of over 500 humans. This is playing to the election gallery in the US. This is the same president that condemns Russian violence in Ukraine.
Some governors and lawmakers want foreign nationals who support the Palestinian cause to be deported. This frenzy is bound up with the upcoming elections next November. Biden sees the chance to gain valuable domestic support for his re-election bid. He dispatched the largest warship in the word, the Gerald Forde, to Israel, another smaller one and a contingent of troops will be in Israel.

Any graduate who studied international relations would know that in their first year of studies, they are instructed to note that besieged heads of governments find a way to survive by creating a foreign war. War is inevitably used by weak leaders to prop up their faltering power-base. This law of international relations covers all nations without exception and covers all countries, whether small or large, democratic or authoritarian.

If the Gaza ground invasion by Israel leads to a wider war with Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah involvement, the US will get deeply involved and a country’s citizenry will not criticize its president who is at war. The US administration and the Democratic Party will get more forceful in their support for Israel in Gaza when the invasion occurs because Biden will have to compete with insane vocabulary from the Republican Party.

Across the Atlantic, Mr. Sunak was quick to dispatch two warships and a spy plane to Israel. In the coming weeks, he will become more strident if the ground offensive by the Israeli army gets underway. But I think, Sunak may not be aware of the crucial sociological differences between US population and the UK population.
The Jewish lobby is unbelievably powerful in the US and can make and break politicians. The US economy is unduly influenced by the wealth of Jewish businesses. Added to that is that the US economy is in better shape than its British counterpart, so it can more sustain expenditure in a war. Fourthly, the pro-Israeli sentiment among White Americans is an influential factor in politics in the US and this is not so in the UK. With these differences, it is doubtful that a shameless embrace of a war in Gaza by Sunak will bring him sufficient electoral capital to win next the election year.