I AM not usually in the business of predictions, but today I can’t resist the itch. So if you don’t mind, I’ll make some observations about what is likely to happen with some political parties and personalities by the end of the year. Firstly, the AFC will either break up, or come so close to dissolving that even if it stuck around, it won’t be worth anything. This is likely to happen because of the following four  reasons:
(1) The AFC leadership has been badly shaken up and the top is weak. For all practical purposes Mr. Trotman belongs to the party in name only.
(2) The AFC will lose most of its votes to the PPP and some will follow Trotman back to the PNC.
(3) The AFC is too tangled up with the PNC which now has a former GDF man who was a senior officer during the decades when elections were massively rigged.
(4) The AFC is too reliant on money and other support from overseas. The party is too disconnected from local voters, relying as it does on press statements and other media rants.
Based on the above, I think the following is likely to happen over the coming months – (1) Raphael Trotman will return to the PNCR; (2) Khemraj Ramjattan will resign from politics; (3) operatives like Sasenarine Singh will abandon the AFC; and (4) the AFC will split between those who want a merger with the PNC and those who believe that the PNC is too tarnished to form such a partnership.
Incidentally, this struggle is going on at the moment within the AFC and there seems to be no way of resolving it. This is the real reason  Trotman gave up on the party.