A GINA Feature
The Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS), which seeks to find solutions to the two major challenges that the Government of Guyana must address in the future– climate change and economic development– was launched on June 8, 2009. Widespread debate and consultations have already occurred. This series of articles seeks to provide answers to some of the questions that Guyanese may have.

Deforestation contributes as much as 20% of greenhouse gas emissions.

What is climate change?
Climate is described as the long term average of a region’s weather. Climate includes patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. These climate patterns play a fundamental role in shaping natural eco-systems, and affect also the human economies and cultures that depend on them. In fact, because so many systems are tied to climate, a change in climate can affect many related aspects of where and how people, plants and animals live, food production, availability and use of water, and health risks. Climate change represents a change in these long-term weather patterns.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributable directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”.

An aerial view of part of Guyana’s pristine forest.

What causes climate change?
The world’s climate undergoes changes over time naturally; but over the years many scientific studies have indicated that we have experienced abnormal changes since the industrial revolution began. There is new and stronger evidence to suggest that the Earth has warmed by approximately 0.75 ?C since pre-industrial times. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature.

Ice cores taken from deep in ancient ice of Antarctica show that carbon dioxide levels are higher now than at any time in the past 650,000 years. In its 2007 report to the United Nations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that it is more than 90 percent likely that the accelerated warming of the past 50-60 years is due to human contributions.

Industrial activity – one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases.

These contributions include increased levels of “heat-trapping” gases (a.k.a. “greenhouse gases”) such as carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. In fact, the Earth’s atmosphere acts like a blanket draped around the Earth. It contains certain gases, such as carbon dioxide, which absorb heat from the sun, reducing the amount that escapes back into space. In this way, they act very much like a greenhouse which traps heat within an enclosed glass building. Without these gases, the Earth’s temperature would be very much colder, and life as we know it would be impossible on the Earth.

One of the biggest ways people contribute to greenhouse gases is by burning fossil fuels. We use coal, oil, and natural gas to generate electricity, heat our homes, power our factories, and run our cars.

Changing land use patterns contribute, too. Trees and other plants use carbon dioxide and release oxygen in exchange. When trees are cut down for development, agriculture, and other purposes, they are no longer available to take carbon dioxide out of the air, but release carbon dioxide as they decay or burn.

Our world in peril.

As the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increase, more heat is “trapped” and global temperatures rise. This then causes the climate to change.

Why is climate change a concern?
Over the past 100 years, global temperatures have risen by 0.7°C. If the world does not act, by 2050, global temperatures will rise by more than 5°C above today’s temperature. Glaciers will melt and large areas of the world will be flooded by the rising of the sea levels, while in other areas, more severe droughts will occur. Extreme weather events and changes in the natural system will also take place. Hundreds of millions of people will starve, hundreds of millions more will become displaced, diseases will spread, agriculture will collapse in many parts of the world leading to a decrease in food security, and scarcity of water and other resources will lead to conflict and war.

Combating climate change
Scientists have concluded that temperature increases of about 1.3°C above today’s global average will be virtually impossible to prevent. But if increases are limited to this amount, the worst extremes of climate change may be avoided.

There are two main ways to combat climate change. The first way is by reducing the man-made causes of climate change and is known as ‘mitigating’ climate change. The release into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide should therefore decrease. These gases are emitted by the use of fossil fuels to generate power and energy for transportation, by agricultural activity and by the destruction of tropical forests.

The world needs to emit 80% less greenhouse gases by 2050 on a 1990 baseline. Achieving these deep reductions will require today’s biggest polluters to cut emissions sharply.

The other way is by combating the effects of climate change once it is already taking place and is known as ‘adapting’ to climate change. Actions that have this aim are for example: construction and maintenance of sea walls to keep out the sea; development of hydro-power or solar power to reduce the dependence on gas and diesel and diversification of agriculture away from the low-lying coast.

Why should Guyana get involved in the climate change fight?
Even though Guyana is not among the countries, like the developed countries, that are required to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions, nonetheless, over the last century, significant changes in Guyana’s climate have been observed. Two major changes observed over the years include changes in temperature and rainfall. One key effect of climate change observed in Guyana is sea-level rise.

The country is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hundreds of thousands of Guyanese live below the sea level and to the south of the East Coast of Demerara, a dense population centre; billions of gallons of water which irrigate much of our country’s productive land are held back by a 130-year old earthen dam. Changing weather patterns mean that the physical infrastructure which offers protection against these two threats is being put under ever increasing strain.

Nobody needs to tell the citizens of Guyana that climate change is occurring: in 2005, the worst flood in the history of the country caused damage equivalent to 60% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and studies indicate that the rains were not associated with the usual weather systems affecting Guyana. Every year, flood-related damage is experienced in parts of the country. In other parts of the country, drought-like conditions are being experienced.

It is therefore evident that addressing climate change is a necessity: climate change must not be seen uniquely as an environmental issue, but must be treated in relation to the effects it has on development and economic growth, and therefore must have a fundamental role in policy decisions.