-DCMO advises, says COVID-19 pandemic still unfolding

AS Guyana continues to battle an “invisible” killer in the form of the Novel Coronavirus , it remains imperative that the existing containment measures be sustained for “as long as it takes,” said Deputy Chief Medical Officer (DCMO), Dr. Karen Boyle.
Guyana had confirmed its first imported case of COVID-19 in Georgetown on Wednesday, March 11, 2020.

That patient, a 52-year-old Guyanese woman who had travelled from the United States of America to Guyana on March 5, 2020, was presented to the public health system on March 10. She died at the Georgetown Public Hospital Corporation on March 11. Since then, three of the woman’s relatives and 70 others have tested positive for the virus, of which eight have succumbed.

In recognising the need to contain the spread of the disease, government has extended its emergency measures to combat the dreaded disease, with the imposition of a 12-hour curfew on citizens. These emergency measures were taken pursuant to paragraphs (1) and (2) (b) of the directive issued by the President, in accordance with the Public Health Ordinance, Cap. 145, and published in the Official Gazette, Legal Supplement B, on March 16, 2020.

The measures at reference took effect from April 3, 2020, and are expected to last one month, unless earlier terminated, extended or amended by notice of the Minister of Public Health, after an assessment of the prevailing public health conditions.

When asked how long these measures should remain, Dr. Boyle, in an invited comment, said: “These measures should continue as long as it takes…we would have to use them (measures) until enough persons have contracted the disease and recovered so that there will be very few people who do not have immunity.” This, she said, could take months or even a year because the COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and it would, therefore, be hard to predict a deadline for the existing containment measures.

It was recently reported that Guyana is on course to “flattening the curve” and reducing the spread of the disease. This was according to Resident Pan American Health Organisation/World Health Organisation (PAHO/WHO) Representative, Dr. William Adu-Krow, who noted that this will only remain possible if government maintains the existing containment measures.

“The measures in place are working and individual measures are working too, but we need to ensure that government enforces the existing measures…the few persons who do not go by these measures, need to comply…we need to see more improvement,” said Dr. Adu-Krow. Already, there have been revised projections which show a reduction in the probable cases, but Dr. Adu-Krow said the new projections can only be maintained if the measures are maintained.

The Ministry of Public Health, using the PAHO/WHO method, had initially projected 1,400 cases, but a study done by PAHO/WHO found that with every case, another 2.5 persons will be affected within five days if there is no partial lockdown and if persons do not exercise effective social distancing.

“That 2.5, if I infect you, you infect 2.5 others and they infect another 2.5. Within a month we will get over 20,000; it is a simple model but it makes a lot of sense,” said Resident PAHO/WHO Representative, Dr. William Adu-Krow, in a News Room report. Dr. Adu-Krow had said if this should happen, five per cent or 1000 of those infected, would need intensive care and Guyana simply does not have the capacity for this.

This study was, however, done prior to government’s implementation of additional measures, including a curfew. Dr. Adu-Krow, with the use of graphs, showed journalists how the projected cases moved from reaching 20,000 in a month to just under 1,000 in a month, with the implementation of the containment measures. If these measures were to, however, be relaxed, Guyana could see about 5,000 cases in no time. Additionally, the past projection of one person infecting 2.5 persons was also revised to one person infecting about 1.5 persons.

“Because of the curfew and other measures we are seeing a drop in the projections…we were seeing a bad curve, but these measures have contributed to a drop in the number of cases,” said Dr. Adu-Krow. The revised projections are also credited to the work of healthcare workers, who, according to Dr. Adu-Krow, have played their role in ensuring that Guyana does not get to the initial 20,000 projected cases.