The APNU+AFC campaign launch

…the no confidence motion, Jagdeo’s gamble and the popularity of David Granger

I HAVE attended numerous political rallies in Guyana and beyond. On Friday, January 3rd 2020, I checked in at D’Urban Park for the APNU+AFC campaign launch. I have never experienced such a thunderous and charged up electoral ambiance.

The blatant inconsistency between the No Confidence Motion (NCM) and the will of the people was laid bare. Based on the evidence of the mood of the crowd and the sheer energy and seriousness, it is not unreasonable to conclude that the treachery and infamy of the parliamentary coup d’etat commissioned by the Opposition on December 21st, 2018, has not resonated well with communities loyal to the government. Leader of the Opposition, Bharrat Jagdeo and his cohorts may have gambled and lost.

The APNU+AFC Campaign Launch
I arrived at D’Urban Park at 7:00 pm and deliberately rejected the opportunity to mingle and dwell with power and privilege. For me, this was a personal fact-finding mission and it was necessary for me to ground with the masses who are the best political barometers. I proceeded with my endeavour with several questions in mind; was this political choreography? Were the attendees solely there to engage in a fete? These questions were resoundingly answered when I completed several observations. Based on the conversations and the discussions, everyone was clear in their minds that they needed to take the next elections very seriously and protect the development they observed in their communities. If you determine that I am not the best exemplar of impartiality, l guide you to Newsroom and Neil Marks. Newsroom conducted a surprise walkthrough at this launch and executed random interviews (See News Room Facebook post: Jan. 3). I was struck by the response of one interviewee who excellently articulated his reason for coming to the rally.

When he was asked why he was there to support the government, he made clear: ‘because them do a lot of wuk in meh village’. He was pressed further, ‘What kind of work they did in your village?’ He responded, ‘them do a culvert, a check sluice…dem do bout a mile road fuh abi deh’. Such succinct recollection, albeit in the vernacular, of reasons for supporting a political party in a country where ethnic politics prevails is quite refreshing. This interview was indicative of the general sentiments that permeated this forum. The level of enthusiasm I encountered, points to an energized electorate that is anxious to return this government to power.

The NCM
The disconnect between the NCM passed in the National Assembly on December 21st, 2018 and the will of the people was immediately called into question by the mammoth, diverse crowd that converged on this venue for this political event. Confidence motions that are organic and proceed from the groundswell of true sentiments are supposed to be made of much stern stuff. They ought not to be disconnected from the aspirations of the people. There is no way, a government that has lost the confidence of the populace can produce such a monumental campaign launch; it does not follow. It is safe to argue that what occurred in the National Assembly on December 21st, 2018 was treachery of the highest order. As a consequence, the intellectual authors and other political cohorts have incurred the wrath of the electorate and it is very possible, they see upcoming elections as an opportunity to express their anger.

Jagdeo’s Gamble
When Napoleon Bonaparte was petitioned by his supporters to take control of France when it was in political turmoil, he remarked, ‘the pear is not ripe’. Bharrat Jagdeo believed the pear was ripe at the end of 2018. A catalogue of political problems accrued for the government; the two major parties in the coalition seemed disunited and contested the local elections as separate political entities, the 2018 Local Government Elections results were overhyped by the PPP and there was a public relations blitzkrieg that projected a landslide for the PPP and a referendum on the government, the President was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma Cancer on November 15th, 2018, the PPP filed the NCM on November 16th, 2018 and it was successfully passed on December 21st when one Member of Parliament (MP), Charandass Persaud voted with the opposition. Amid this catalog of political misfortunes for the government, Jagdeo made his gamble which he believed was a sure winner. He calculated that there would be elections in three months and was probably aware that all political science literature documents that incumbents invariably lose elections after falling to confidence motions. He made his move on January 20th to select the weakest candidate ever produced by the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) since its formation in 1948. This selection was an attempt to ensure his power is maintained and perpetuated through a puppet presidency arrangement. He played the political lottery and was certain of an easy path to power, it seemed like the perfect time. One year later, it is safe to argue that this was extreme political naiveté all culminated with the evidence of this grand campaign launch with a unified coalition, a super healthy presidency and just about two months shaved off from the constitutional five years served by the government. All of this compounded by the fact that the PPP was now stuck with the weakest candidate going up against the most popular President leading their traditional adversaries.
It might be too early to assess the impact of the NCM but it is shaping up to be the biggest strategic blunder in Guyana’s modern political affairs.

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