–President Ali addresses disruptions to global supply chains amid Middle East conflict
–assures Guyanese gov’t will make necessary policy shifts to protect its people, region

THE government of Guyana is prepared to make the necessary policy shifts and adjustments to ensure that its economy and people remain guarded from external shocks that are now threatening global supply chains.
Addressing concerns of widespread volatility and supply chain shocks amidst the Middle Eastern conflict, President Dr Irfaan Ali, during a Wednesday noon airing of the programme ‘Tea on Terrace,’ explained that the Caribbean and Latin American region is highly vulnerable with its dependence on imported fuel, affecting sectors like power, agriculture, tourism, and shipping.
The burden of the surge in prices has trickled down to consumers globally, with significant variation by region.
Dr Ali pointed out that global trends have seen 21 per cent of oil prices being disrupted. This is equivalent to 15 million barrels of crude per day and six million barrels of petroleum products per day.
Fertiliser prices have surged by nearly 46 per cent month-on-month between February and March 2026, with higher prices expected to play out in the months ahead.
Food price inflation is projected to increase rapidly on the global level, with 50 per cent of low-income countries reporting increases in inflation between the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
“The implications of the ongoing war in Iran are far-reaching, the consequence of this war is not only the immediate impact, but the long-term impact of rebuilding the disruptions in global supply chains, the destruction of important and critical global infrastructure that will enable price stability.”
The war, he noted, has created a global energy crisis with the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Despite this, Guyana remains one of the few countries to have completely removed excise tax on fuel imports and refined products.
“We have to understand this, we are operating in the period of global history when the largest supply disruption is taking place,” he said, explaining further:
“You have to understand that transport cost has increased, which means that all goods and services’ costs will be impacted. You have to understand that insurance costs for maritime traffic have increased, pilotage fees have increased, and risk allowance for persons working on a ship has increased. All of this is outside of the price increase itself.”
THE REALTIES OF THE WORLD
Much of the pressure, he noted, centres on the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as ‘chokepoint’. Here is where 19 to 22 per cent liquefied natural gas (LNG) which is equivalent to 110-115 billion cubic meters of annual gas shipment, has been disrupted.
Additionally, this chokepoint is where one-third of global seaborne fertiliser, 30 per cent of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 30 per cent of where the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) travels.
“25 per cent of diesel and 20 per cent of gasoline shipments pass through this Hormuz Strait, this chokepoint, all of that is affected for weeks now. What this has led to is widespread volatility. Supply chain shocks are now causing severe disruptions to all nations dependent on imported gas, fuel, fertiliser and refined products. So, our policy makers must understand this. They must understand the implications of this…these are the realities the world is operating in,” he cautioned.
GLOBAL IMPACT: ACUTE HUNGER
Citing an assessment from the World Food Programme, President Ali noted that it has been estimated that the conflict will push 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026 potentially reaching record levels of global hunger.
He explained that urea fertiliser, a high-concentration nitrogen fertiliser, has surged to 46 per cent, with higher prices expected in the months ahead.

“This is the reality. This is what farmers, the food ecosystem, and governments will be faced with because of demand supply, just because of what is happening on the supply side.”
Additionally, it is projected that food price inflation will increase rapidly on the global level.
“For a matter of fact, some projections see 50 per cent of low-income countries reporting increases in food inflation in the last quarter of 2025,” he said adding:
“We also see massive increase in global fuel prices at pumps in every single country in the world. Here in Guyana, we are one of the few countries less than 1 per cent and maybe the only country in this region that has completely removed excise taxes on fuel import refined products.”
He stressed that the multiplier effect of the conflict will have even greater impact on the larger economies like China, India, South Korea.
VULNERABLE
President Ali reminded that the Caribbean and the Latin American region remain vulnerable to these shocks due to their dependence on imported fuel.
“Already, we are seeing the aviation sector adding a fuel surcharge that will affect tourism, in turn, that will affect all of the countries dependent on tourism, increasing the cost of fertiliser, increasing the cost for shipping; most of our products, whether it be food or construction material, all of that will be impacted as a result of what is happening,” he said.
CRITICAL THINKING & CONSEQUENTIAL IMPACT
Further examining the impacts, Dr Ali said that the exposure of the Strait has paralysed exports from Qatar, the world’s largest LNG supplier, which accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the global market.
This, he explained, now puts countries like Japan and South Korea at a risk of industrial shutdowns and energy shortages, because LNG is a critical component of their power generation mix.
This will have a consequential impact on slow manufacturing and industrial development.
“So, these are the long-term impact we in Guyana will have to navigate. It’s not a simplistic social media post. This is critical thinking, critical analysis, policy shift and policy reorientation, consistent dialogue, being on the phone, being in the discussions, being at the table, 24/7, to minimise the impact and disruption, and then coming up with an additional menu of measure that will continue to safeguard our ecosystem,” he said.