I HOPE no one of mature age will take the survey that Ram & McRae did on the question of the renegotiation of the oil contract as a social science-based project that has economic meaning. I do not think any company should do a survey of 139 persons, no matter what the issue is that needs the ventilation of people’ preferences.

The lay person would not understand it, but for the trained academic, a survey of 139 persons to determine a nation’s attitude to a national issue is frivolity and not serious academic work. People expose themselves to the accusation of ignorance if they embrace such an arrangement, simply because such a survey is useless in the context of determining national thinking.

I read where Mr GHK Lall was screaming about the value of the survey. That is understandable from the likes of Lall who has absolutely no training in the social sciences and uses anything in the public domain to get publicity. For a survey to be taken seriously, it has to meet strict scientific criteria.
A survey or a poll to gauge the feelings of a nation is a very complex process. In fact, the only polls that are respected are done by professional organisations led by trained social scientists.
When you read that a media house has done a survey, do not be misled; it employed a professional polling organisation. Almost monthly you read about a survey done by the New York Times, CBS, etc…. They do not do the survey using their staff. Media houses do not have trained polling experts; they employ such experts for the specific project.

Even using scientific guidelines, polls can get it shockingly wrong as we saw recently in the national election in India. Two components of the survey are basic, and it is in those two dimensions you find the complexities and in those two aspects, the scientific context lies.
First, demography is an indispensable requirement. Civilisation’s behaviour, thinking and conduct constitute a demographic process. Civilisation has always been driven by demographic textures.
Different age groups approach philosophical questions differently and that depends on the prevailing zeitgeist in the world. If you are going to capture the needs of a nation, then your survey has to cut across age groups, using the same numerical basis. Young people tend to be more radical, non-conformist and emotional that older folk; the reason being experience and lack of it.

Apart from demography, a survey has to take in the class structure of the society. Wealthy folk tend to be conservative. Employees tend to be liberal and left-wing. Young Hindus in India did not vote along religious lines, thus denying the incumbent a majority even though the incumbent is zealously pro-Hindu. In the USA, Black women’s preference is for the Democratic party. White college women favour the Democratic party. Older White women go for the Republican party.
The above explains why a survey is a complicated operation. The next hurdle is the questionnaire. A survey can achieve nothing if the questions are not meticulously shaped to be value-free. If they are not value-free, then people will not offer pertinent reflections.

Space will prevent more discussion on the theoretical aspects of polling, so let’s go directly to the 139 persons whom Ram and McRae communicated with. I have been doing the Freddie Kissoon Show for about two and half years and not one business person interviewed has supported renegotiation of the ExxonMobil contract. Many opposition parties do not take the same position, including ANUG. There are more than 300 lawyers in Guyana and more than 139 would not argue for renegotiation.
No Guyanese scholar whose area of study is international political economy would support the government demanding renegotiation. The business folk, the lawyers and academics are fully aware of the consequences for the future of Guyana, and Guyana’s relation with its traditional allies in the West if ExxonMobil and Guyana fight over renegotiation.

It comes back to the wording of the questions. I believe 100 per cent of Guyanese in and out of the land would not endorse renegotiation if the following question is on the survey: “Do you support Guyana demanding a renegotiation of the contract even though such a position will lead to ExxonMobil and the American Government exerting under [sic] pressure on Guyana?”
No Guyanese wants their country to be in a fight with the US, especially when that country is the factor in deterring Venezuelan aggression. When the implications of demanding contract changes are explained to people, they will give a more enlightened opinion. Most Guyanese want a better contract, but they will stick with the present arrangement if Guyana gets into a fight and stands to lose its future.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.