TODAY, President Nicolas Maduro holds a referendum asking Venezuelans to support the country’s ownership of Essequibo. Guyanese should not be bothered with its results. Venezuela cannot invade Guyana. Venezuela will be told by powerful countries that they will not accept such a violation of international law.
Here are two reasons for the referendum. The first one I adumbrated in my column of October 26, 2023 titled, “Maduro’s game is as old as the sea.” This is the recurring story in international relations where an unpopular prime minister or president facing loss of power initiates war with his neighbour to invoke the patriotism of citizens and prevent further anti-governmental instincts from toppling him.

It will not work for Maduro because he is so unpopular that the mathematical configuration against him in the next election is deadly accurate. The second reason is that if Maduro rigs the election and saddles Venezuela with more crippling sanctions, somewhere down the road when he is about to fall, he will invoke the old game again.
He will seek a confabulation with the Guyana Government and say to it that there was a referendum in which the Venezuelan people accept ownership of Essequibo and thus he wants negotiations that would yield a parcel of land. The Guyana Government will naturally reject that and by the time Maduro can attempt to use the old game for the third time, he will be out of power.

Here now are the reasons why now and in the future, there will be no invasion of Guyana, so please live a normal life in your country until you go to your final reward. First, there is not even an infinitesimal comparison with Guyana and Venezuela and Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine was once a part of the USSR which really had at its centre – Russia. Russia invaded using two pretexts. One was that there are millions of Russians in Ukraine that are facing threats to their future and Russia has to protect them. Russia also says that Ukraine was about to join NATO and if they did that then Russia’s security system will be threatened because NATO will now be right on Russia’s doorstep. The world has not accepted these two pretexts and the war is entering its third year.

With our conflict here, Venezuela is arrogating to itself the right to change an international treaty signed 100 years ago with Great Britain. Guyana has no military pact with a neighbour that Venezuela considers an enemy. Also, there are no Venezuelans living in the Essequibo who require Venezuelan protection.
The second reason why there will be no invasion is because they are powerful countries with geopolitical and geostrategic interests in South America that simply cannot afford to let Maduro invade Guyana. It is not within their security interests to allow such lawlessness.

One of those countries is the USA. With a vast oil find in Guyana and with a colossal investment by ExxonMobil, it is unthinkable that the US would just stand aside and let Venezuela take Essequibo. Leaving aside the oil stake, unchecked Venezuelan aggression will have implications for the superpower credibility of the US and it can trigger similar aggressions on other continents where US has geopolitical and other interests.

Another country with high stakes in South America is Brazil. It borders all countries in South America except two. Perhaps over a hundred years or more there have been no border issues with Brazil and its neighbours but there has been invisible questioning of lines of demarcation by some South American countries. These interests have never reached the surface.
A Venezuelan incursion and annexation of 70 percent of Guyana’s territory will never be accepted by Brazil because it will bring back from the dead, issues of border demarcations in South America.

Thirdly, after the ruling of the ICJ, it is almost certain, the international community will not remain unmoved by Venezuela’s invasion. There will be severe sanctions because the very foundation on which international laws stand will crumble. Here is a country that is not a major military force in the world, ignoring international laws and annexing 70 percent of another country.
The implications for global stability will be horrendous. Once Venezuela gets away with it, then the stable doors are open throughout the world.
My belief is that Maduro has been warned by very important countries and that has not been made public. There will be no annexation of Guyana’s territory now or even in the distant future.
Guyana should ignore the things that people like GHK Lall wrote and was given coverage by the private media. Just live your life as normal today and long after today.