WELL-KNOWN political scientist, Dr. Vishnu Bisram has projected a landslide victory for the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) at the upcoming Local Government Elections (LGE).
Using the results of opinion polls conducted in October, November and over the past few days, Dr. Bisram concluded: “President, Dr. Irfaan Ali is projected to lead the PPP/C to a landslide victory, making significant gains even in PNC/R (People’s National Congress/Reform) strongholds in urban and rural constituencies. If the elections were held now, the PPP/C would win an overwhelming number of the 70 NDCs and a majority of the 10 municipalities.”
He said that the poll projection is turning out to be the largest electoral victory of the party in LGEs in the history of the country, with voters giving high favourability ratings to President Ali’s leadership in contradiction with Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton, who scores very low on popularity ratings.
Dr. Bisram has been conducting polls in Guyana since the late 1980s. The latest polls entailed the interview of between 520 and 640 voters to reflect the ethnic composition of the population with a margin of error of four per cent.
“The latest surveys, from October through December, show consistency in relatively high favourability, likeability or popularity, and job performance ratings of President Ali, Vice-President Bharrat Jagdeo, and Prime Minister, Brigadier (Ret’d) Mark Phillips,” he related.
Dr. Bisram added: “All have maintained constantly high positive and job performance ratings in the 60s percentile in contrast with Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton whose likeability or popularity and job performance ratings were consistently in the low 30s or upper 20s. The polls find nil cross-over appeal for Norton among Indians and floating voters, accounting for his poor ratings. Voters overwhelmingly prefer Dr. Ali and the PPP/C over the PNC/R.”
Dr. Bisram said that voters in general do not have a very favourable opinion of Norton and by extension the PNC/R or APNU under his leadership.
“The public does not view the PNC/R or the APNU+AFC coalition under Norton’s leadership as a viable alternative to the PPP/C. The populace say that his recent actions demonstrate that he lacks the leadership qualities to bring people together,” he said.
The political scientist added: “They note that he is brash, operates in isolation, and not engaging. They say they are looking for a leader who is personable and conciliatory, who would pursue consensus politics, and who would put an end to political violence, confrontational politics, and ethnic divisiveness. Not surprisingly, many traditional supporters and middle-of-the-road floating voters are moving away from the party that may lead to its decimation or blow away in the coming LGE.”
LGEs are scheduled for March and, according to Dr. Bisram, electoral fortune could change by then, especially since a new Georgetown-based political party, Independent Citizens for Progress (ICP), was launched last week. Led by well-known broadcaster, Bobby Vieira, ICP is gaining traction in Georgetown– a PNC/R stronghold– among the middle class and business and professional classes.
“The ICP is also talked about among Indian businesspersons who are seeking different leadership for Georgetown,” he said.
He noted that in contrast to the ICP, the polls’ findings reveal Norton has not been able to win over cross-ethnic support which is key to winning an election
