EVEN as countries the world over continue to grapple with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, the economic prospects for Guyana remain positive at the close of the first quarter of 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF in its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook, which was released on Tuesday, related that global economic prospect has worsened significantly since the last World Economic Outlook forecast was published in January.

“At the time, we had projected the global recovery to strengthen from the second quarter of this year after a short-lived impact of the Omicron variant. Since then, the outlook has deteriorated, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — causing a tragic humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe — and the sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end hostilities.

“This crisis unfolds while the global economy was on a mending path, but had not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significant divergence between the economic recoveries of advanced economies and emerging market and developing ones,” the IMF said.

In addition to the war, frequent and wider-ranging lockdowns in China — including in key manufacturing hubs — have also slowed activity there and could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains. Higher, broader, and more persistent price pressures also led to a tightening of monetary policy in many countries.

Further, based on the IMF’s analysis, overall risks to economic prospects have risen sharply and policy trade-offs have become ever more challenging.
“Beyond the immediate humanitarian impacts, the war will severely set back the global recovery, slowing growth and increasing inflation even further,” the financial institution lamented.

Guyana, though also being susceptible to the economic shocks that are affecting countries across the world, is positioned to maintain a positive economic standing because of its burgeoning oil and gas sector, and prudent fiscal planning.

The country, according to the IMF, remains on course to achieving Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 47.2 per cent at the end of this year and a further 34.5 per cent at the end of 2023.

HIGHEST ECONOMIC GROWTH
The World Bank, after assessing the economic performance of countries during the period 2019-2021, had announced recently that Guyana recorded the highest cumulative economic growth in the Caribbean and Latin American region.

The international financial institution determined that the country recorded cumulative economic growth of 72.03 per cent, and the closest nation behind Guyana was Nicaragua, which recorded cumulative economic growth of 7.53 per cent.

With this rate of overall growth, Guyana ranks among the fastest growing economies worldwide.
The resilience of the country’s economy is being demonstrated as the nation continues to progress despite grappling with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and, more recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Our economy is becoming stronger; it is rebounding from the two-year-long effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Businesses, both local and foreign, are capitalising on the unfolding opportunities and, in the process, generating jobs and providing incomes for our citizens,” President, Dr. Irfaan Ali had said in a recent address to the nation.

Based on Budget 2022– the country’s largest to date — the government intends to enhance its approach to stimulating growth in various economic sectors.
Moving ahead, growth this year would be primarily driven by the operations of ExxonMobil’s second Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, the Liza Unity.

ExxonMobil, as it is now, has four sanctioned projects offshore Guyana. Of those, Liza Phase One is producing approximately 130,000 barrels per day, using the Liza Destiny floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, while the Liza Phase Two, which started production in February, is steadily ramping up to its capacity of 220,000 barrels per day, using the Liza Unity FPSO vessel.

The third project, Payara, is expected to produce 220,000 barrels per day; construction on its production vessel, the Prosperity FPSO, is running approximately five months ahead of schedule, with start-up likely before year-end 2023.

The fourth project, Yellowtail, is expected to produce 250,000 barrels per day when the One Guyana FPSO comes on stream in 2025.

HUGE BENEFITS
“These projects will bring huge benefits to Guyana,” President of ExxonMobil Guyana, Alistair Routledge, said during a brief interview released by ExxonMobil.

It was reported that returns from the sector are expected to catapult Guyana to the ranks of wealthiest countries in the Western Hemisphere, thereby increasing the government’s fiscal space to invest in initiatives geared at expanding the economy, and improving the overall welfare of citizens.

“Guyana is now poised to be one of the wealthiest countries in the hemisphere; we intend to employ the gains from exploiting these deposits into initiatives geared at expanding the economy, improving competitiveness, giving people the best social services, increasing productivity, enhancing food production, and building new sectors,” President, Dr. Irfaan Ali had said in his keynote address during a virtual faculty workshop on the microeconomics of competitiveness hosted by the Harvard Business School.

In painting a vivid image of what is expected of the oil-and-gas sector in the near term, Dr. Ali said that, by 2025, operating cash flow, based on total investment, is expected to reach US$3.5 billion.

Outside of oil, non-oil growth, this year, is expected to be driven mainly by rebounds in rice cultivation and gold mining, and continued expansion in construction activity and wholesale and retail trade and repairs.