Analysis by Rickey Singh
POLITICAL surprises are awaiting the voters of Jamaica and Guyana and they could come within the next week or two.
In the case of Jamaica, it relates to a snap national election.  And for Guyana, parliamentary candidates who were formerly in governments of the main opposition People’s National Congress (PNC) and the incumbent People’s Progressive Party (PPP)
Today, when Andrew Holness is scheduled to take the oath as Jamaica’s ninth Prime Minister since independence in 1962, Guyana’s governing People’s Progressive Party/Civic will be focused at its latest campaign rally on development strategies to be pursued as a fifth-term government — should it win the coming November 28 general election. The party released its election manifesto last night.
Holness, the 39-year-old Education Minister who is taking over from Bruce Golding, is widely expected to call a snap general election. Prevailing thinking is that he may well do so for early December or February next year, with a precise timing that follows his endorsement as party leader at the JLP’s coming convention on November 19.
Latest results from public opinion polls point to a close outcome between the JLP, under Holness’ leadership, and that of the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) led by former short-term Prime Minister, the 66-year-old seasoned campaigner, Portia Simpson-Miller. The polls give the PNP an estimated four to five per cent lead over the JLP, a sharp contrast with its declining popularity under Golding’s leadership.
At the September 2007 election for the 60-seat House of Representatives, Golding had led the JLP to a 33-27 victory to end four consecutive terms of PNP governments. However, in relation to popular endorsement, this was less than one per cent more of votes secured by the PNP with a 61.05 per cent response by the total electorate
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Age and economy
Much emphasis is being placed by JLP strategists on the youthfulness that Holness brings to the party’s leadership. Nevertheless, the primary leadership structures of both parties, as also revealed among parliamentarians, comprise those in their 50s and 60s.
This, incidentally, is also emerging as the case for Guyana’s coming November 28 election, with the presidential and running-mate (Prime Minister) candidates for the incumbent PPP/C and the main opposition — A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) — being in their mid-sixties.
The outgoing President Bharrat Jagdeo, who was just 35 years old when he assumed the presidency following the illness of President Janet Jagan in 1999, is now completing a dozen years as Head of State. He is constitutionally debarred from seeking more than two successive elected five-year terms
In addition to very challenging social and economic problems facing the current Golding-led administration, Holness will be saddled with unresolved implementation disagreements over an accord with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as he contemplates the appropriate timing for a snap election.
In contrast, Guyana’s ruling PPP/C keeps reciting commendations from the international financial institutions for fiscal management and a pattern of continued economic growth over the past three years.  
Nevertheless, neither the APNU coalition of parties (largely dominated by the PNC) nor The Alliance for Change (AFC), which won 22 and five seats respectively to the PPP/C’s 36 for the 65-member parliament in August 2006, seems fazed by the government’s vigorous efforts in marketing the social and economic gains that underpin the national infrastructural transformation that has occurred since returning to government in October 1992 after 24 unbroken years of State power by the PNC.

Jagdeo’s concern
It is relevant to also note that President Jagdeo has found it necessary to express surprising concern over a likely “low voter turnout” following reactions he has faced from more exuberant party supporters at campaign rallies talking excitedly about “we (PPP) win already…” 
The President’s retort in a media statement reflected the realism that elections are won on the basis of ballots counted and officially declared, not on mass attendance at campaign rallies. Hence his appeal for “a heavy turn out” on November 28.
If the PPP/C is trying to avoid being a casualty of excessive confidence by its supporters, its primary challenger, APNU, is yet to attract new and influential supporters ahead of the submission of lists of parliamentary candidates by contesting parties later this week to the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).
So far, it is the AFC, now contesting its second general election, and whose leadership structure is based on defectors from the PPP and PNC, that has attracted some surprises. The most significant to join its rank is Dr. Richard Van West Charles, former Health Minister in the PNC government and son-in-law of the late President Forbes Burnham.
At the time of writing, there were also reports of Moses Nagamootoo, former Information Minister in an earlier PPP administration and long-standing party stalwart, joining the AFC’s team of parliamentary candidates. But informed political watchers and commentators in Guyana do not hold out much hope for Charles and Nagamootoo making any significant impact as AFC candidates for the coming poll.
Meanwhile, in Jamaica, there is growing concern about the readiness of the EOJ (Electoral Office of Jamaica) for a snap election, either before Christmas or in February 2012.
Director of Elections, Orrette Fisher, has been quoted as observing that “the ideal” timeframe to prepare for a national election was three months, and that the EOJ would have to go into “overdrive” to effectively deliver, should a snap poll be called for later this year.
The choice for Holness is that having an early election may be a risk worth taking, rather than wait until August or September next year. For its part, the PNP has declared itself to be in “election-readiness.”