• points to 6.1 per cent annual growth since 2020

THE Ministry of Agriculture has rejected claims by the APNU that increased government spending has been accompanied by a sustained decline in agricultural production, arguing that a broader examination of official economic data presents a more mixed picture.

The ministry’s response acknowledges a 0.5 per cent contraction in agriculture, forestry and fishing during the first half of 2026, compared with 11.1 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 2025, but says the result should not be interpreted as evidence of a prolonged sector-wide collapse.

It said the 11.6 percentage-point deterioration in the first-half performance was concentrated principally in the Other Crops sub-sector, which moved from 10 per cent growth in the first half of 2025 to a 6.4 per cent contraction in the first half of this year.

According to the ministry, several other major subsectors continued to expand during the period. Sugar grew by 19.3 per cent, rice by 4.4 per cent and fishing by 4.1 per cent, while livestock and forestry recorded stronger growth rates than in the corresponding period of 2025.

The ministry was responding to an Agriculture-Month statement from the APNU which questioned whether increased government expenditure was translating into higher production, with the political grouping asking: “More Money, But Where Is the Production?”

The Agriculture Ministry said the question could not be answered solely by comparing a single budgetary allocation with a six-month GDP performance.

It argued that agricultural investments, particularly capital projects, pass through planning, procurement, construction and commissioning stages before their full effects can be reflected in production.

Drainage and irrigation works, farm-to-market roads, planting materials, technology, storage facilities and market-access initiatives therefore have to be assessed against their completion, implementation and measurable results over a sufficiently long period, the ministry said.

It also pointed to external factors that can influence short-term agricultural output, including weather conditions, flooding, drought, commodity prices, biological production cycles and changes in the base against which growth is measured.

The ministry said the more appropriate assessment should consider production volumes, yields, productivity, farmer incomes, losses, market access and prices, rather than relying on a single aggregate GDP indicator.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE

The ministry also disputed the APNU’s assertion that agricultural production is on a continuing downward trajectory, pointing instead to the longer-term performance of the sector.

According to the ministry’s calculations, agriculture, forestry and fishing recorded compound annual real growth of approximately 2.1 per cent between 2015 and 2020, compared with approximately 6.1 per cent between 2020 and 2025.

Official national accounts data published by the Ministry of Finance show that the sector’s real GDP at 2012 prices rose from G$270.4 billion in 2020 to G$363.4 billion in 2025.

The ministry said the sub-sector figures also showed changes in performance over the two periods.

It cited livestock, forestry, fishing and rice as areas where annual growth improved between the two five-year periods, while Other Crops recorded positive compound annual growth in both periods. Sugar, however, was identified as a continuing structural challenge despite its stronger first-half performance in 2026.

The ministry also highlighted the difference in the sector’s nominal value over the two periods.

At current prices, agriculture, forestry and fishing were valued at approximately G$224.9 billion in 2015, falling to G$192.2 billion in 2020, before increasing to approximately G$437 billion in 2025.

The Ministry of Finance’s 2026 Budget Estimates similarly record the sector’s current-price value at G$437.0 billion in 2025, compared with G$189.8 billion in 2019 and G$192.2 billion in 2020.

The ministry cautioned, however, that nominal GDP and real output are different measures, since current-price values are affected by price changes as well as changes in production.

FOCUS ON PRODUCTION

The Agriculture Ministry said the first-half 2026 contraction nevertheless warranted attention, particularly in the Other Crops sub-sector, but maintained that it should be considered within the wider performance of the sector.

It said agricultural investment should ultimately be judged by whether programmes deliver measurable improvements in acreage cultivated, yields, production, farmer incomes, losses, market access and food prices.

The ministry also challenged the suggestion that increased agricultural expenditure could be directly linked to food-price movements, noting that prices are influenced by several factors, including weather, import costs, transportation, distribution margins and international commodity prices.

It said the appropriate test of agricultural policy was therefore not simply how much money was allocated or how the sector performed during a single six-month period, but what was spent, what was completed and what measurable outcomes followed over time.

The ministry maintained that the first-half 2026 contraction represents a significant slowdown requiring targeted intervention, but said the available annual data do not support characterising the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors as being in a broad or persistent state of collapse.