Old Europe, Russia, new China and Thucydides’ trap

CANADIAN Prime Minister, Mike Carney, was the first non-European head of government to attend the regular meeting of the European Political Community which was held in the first week in May this year. Here are the words of Mr. Carney: “We don’t think that we’re destined to submit to a more transactional, insular and brutal world, and gatherings such as these point to a better way forward… It is my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe… the world is undergoing a rupture across several dimensions – integration is being used as a weapon by some and the rules are not constraining the hegemons.”

I admit I cannot make sense of this reflection of changing international relations. I will attempt to put my understanding of Europe in a changing world which differs from Mr. Carney’s. First, Europe seems to be heading in the direction of a concretised racial vision of the world rather than being an agent for saving humanity in a fast-moving destructive world.

Europe invited Israel decades ago to be part of Europe for the FIFA Football World Cup. That has no logic. Israel is in the Middle East. So, race has to be a factor. But even race makes the European decision more esoteric. The Lebanese nationality has more Caucasian blood in it than the Israeli people. Europe invites Israel each year as a participant in the Eurovision Song Contest. Again, why Israel and not Lebanon? Australia is now part of the Eurovision competition. This is not only racial but decadent; Australia is nowhere near to Europe.

Mr. Carney points to the global rules are not constraining hegemons? Since Carney was addressing European leaders, he could not have meant Europe as a hegemonic power? But why is Europe not a hegemon? In fact, it is. Let’s quote perhaps the most accomplished Guyanese international economist, Dr Maurice Odle, who worked at sensitive levels in CARICOM and the UN: “The West uses denial of access to loans in the international banking system the IFIs (International Financial Institutions) and when this does not work, it resorts to denial of access to Swift international clearance and settlement system for financial transactions.

The denial of Venezuela’s Maduro government of access to its considerable ($1billion) gold reserve in the Bank of England and the denial of Russia’s use of its 650-billion-dollar reserves in the Western banking system, are glaring examples.”

Odle’s book is his autobiography, and it contradicts anyone who thinks that Europe is not a hegemon. Let’s look at the word “brutal,” that Mr. Carney feels that the global society does not that have to submit to. But the world has submitted to a brutal international order and Europe is part of the globe that turns a blind eye to this violently harsh world we live in.

One of the most sadistic forms of genocide in human history has occurred two years ago in Gaza committed by Israel. Europe supports Israel, has not accepted that genocide has occurred despite affirmative pronouncements by the UN and the International Criminal Court, and refuses to stop military assistance to Israel. Let’s quote a section of Mr. Carney’s speech once again: “It is my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe.”

If there is a new international order it has to come from Global South. The last place we should expect it to be from is old Europe. Europe is old and accustomed to war. All the signs are pointing to Europe’s temptation to violently confront Russia. For all its experience in being around for thousands of years, Europe has not even attempted a cease-fire proposal that is plausible.

In fact, Europe has submitted cease fire blueprints but all favours Ukraine without even a modicum of recognition of Russia’s security interest. In fact, there is a theory going around that in the first year of the war, Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire but the then PM of the UK, Boris Johnson, twisted President Zelensky’s arms and got him to back down.

Europe played no role in the current cease fire in Gaza. So where is Europe’s position on this brutal world that we are currently living in? Hegemonic powers go to war to preserve their Leviathan status in the international system. Old Europe is not different that is why President Xi of China educated President Trump this week on what the Thucydides’ trap is. Europe’s violent, geopolitical obsession with Russia is part of the Thucydides trap.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.

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