IT has finally come down to this. The public can expect two leaders of their respective opposition parties to duel over the next few months to determine who will be the coalition’s presidential candidate to face President Mohamed Irfaan Ali at the polls slated for 2025.

After all, since both the Congress and Conference of the PNC and AFC parties were rigged or had discrepancies, neither Nigel Hughes nor Aubrey Norton could be considered the presumptive opposition nominee for the prime post.

What, however, can be said is that the PNC has the upper hand in deciding its future in coalition politics. That outgoing party leader seemingly had a motion agreed upon at the Congress, which states that the PNC Leader is empowered to be the PNC Presidential Candidate. The motion also said that ‘only’ he can decide whether to be the candidate or allow another candidate to run. And, Norton won the leader spot of the party, albeit through questionable means.

Well, Hughes seems to be positioning himself and the AFC as the ones that should get the presidential post this time, if there is to be a coalition of parties going to the polls. Recall that former President David Granger held the portfolio in 2015 and 2020 as per the Cummingsburg Agreement. This was in the face of protest from the AFC, even though it eventually gave in.
Over the next four months, Hughes plans to meet various AFC and coalition partners and financiers to make the case as to why he should be the consensus candidate and not Norton. Sources say that David Patterson and Cathy Hughes will team with other like-minded opposition politicians to make the case for Hughes.

The first stop, sources say, will be at the doorstep of umbrella party, APNU, which pulled away from Norton because it was not being treated properly, concerns over leadership, and the decision making and general inactivity. If it does happen as predicted, APNU, under its new political configuration, would favour working with Hughes rather than Norton.

Then, the team will work on getting the WPA back within its fold. It, too, cannot be trusted because it teamed up with its longtime political enemy, the PNC/R, in a coalition. David Hinds and Tacuma Ogunseye will pan the WPA in the direction of Hughes, who shares most of the main ideologies that have to do with race and ethnicity, rather than Norton. The AFC and all of its newfound partners will seek to bring the other small parties, especially A New and United Guyana (ANUG) and the Liberty and Justice Party, into the coalition, but this will prove challenging unless some formal deal or pact is made because of the level of distrust in coalitions in Guyana.

So then, Norton still will insist that PNC will stand alone. He will be pressured from all sides to do what is best for the combined opposition, but his ego will never allow it. The public will see a coalition, but it might not involve the PNC if Hughes and the other smaller parties do not temper their expectations and fall in line.

The only person who is still capable of uniting these warring clans of the opposition is David Granger, who is sitting at home and allowing the fighting to continue. Turn a deaf ear for a moment to the things he did wrong during his presidency, and try forgetting the attempt made to steal Guyana’s democracy at the 2020 polls, Granger is still very much the opposition’s wild card and consensus candidate for the 2024 elections. Some may never admit it, and others may not think of his candidacy ever again, but never say never. Look at what is happening in the U.S.; Donald Trump has resurfaced to run for President again, despite being criminally charged with 34 offences, and several other legal battles looming.

Granger is capable of making a surprising entrance back at the helm of Guyanese politics as the consensus candidate, just as he did back in 2011 and 2015. He may be politically polarising and advanced in age, but many people see him as a contender, as opposed to Hughes and Norton. Anyway, if this does play out, Hughes and the AFC would give way to Granger, not Norton, as a consensus candidate.

But it is looking like the future of coalition politics in Guyana is certainly at a crossroads if the PNC/R holds firm to its position, and the AFC does not budge. This process will lead to both parties exposing themselves and it is not looking good. The level of infighting, disunity and gutter politics is showing the public what Granger and Corbin worked hard at hiding.

This means that the PPP/C will have to use strategy and political wisdom. It will have to depend on its political experience in the body politics to know what the opposition, though divided, is planning. That party will have to keep its ears to the ground and continue delivering on its Manifesto promises in the coming months, while it beats on this Game of Thrones that the opposition, the AFC and PNC, are playing right before the public’s eyes.
The PPP/C will have to be vigilant, because they will be the voice of reason. They will serve to constantly remind the voting public about the events that occurred over the APNU+AFC’s tenure, and the 28 years of PNC rule. The PPP/C cannot afford to let its guard down.

This race for the candidacy is looking nasty, and like a Game of Thrones episode.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.