–President Ali pledges as volcano threatens to erupt

CITIZENS of St. Vincent and the Grenadines are waiting with bated breath as scientists have warned that the island’s La Soufriere volcano, which has been erupting continuously since December, can erupt explosively in a matter of hours or perhaps days.
This is according to reports published by iWitness News on Thursday. The report quoted Professor Richard Robertson as saying that the heightened volcanic-tectonic (VT) earthquakes in March had suggested that fresh magma was trying to get to the surface.
Robertson, who is the lead scientist monitoring the volcano, was at the time addressing an emergency press conference hosted by St. Vincent’s Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves.
As the people of St. Vincent prepare for the worst, the Government of Guyana has confirmed that it stands ready to provide support to the island. This assurance was given by President Dr. Irfaan Ali, on Thursday evening. “Having regards [sic] to the emerging situation in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, this afternoon [Thursday], I called Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves and assured him of Guyana’s full support in dealing with this looming crisis,” President Ali said in a statement.

He added: “The Prime Minister and I discussed immediate support, which will be required in the response. The Prime Minister indicated that apart from the need to evacuate citizens, there were other emergency material needs.” Dr. Ali said that upon receiving the full list of the island’s needs, Guyana would immediately put together a national response to supply the items and arrange for them to be shipped to St. Vincent and the Grenadines. “At this time, we would like to assure the citizens of St. Vincent and the Grenadines of Guyana’s unwavering support and solidarity,” the Guyanese Head of State concluded. Similar sentiments were also expressed by Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, Hugh Todd, who, in an invited comment, gave a reminder that Guyana is known to be one of the first countries to respond and provide assistance in the cases of disasters occurring in the Region, and that this time would be no different. Early Thursday afternoon, St. Vincent’s Prime Minister Gonsalves had not issued any evacuation orders; however, by Thursday night island officials confirmed that those orders came through.

CHANGE IN SEISMICITY
The iWitness News agency had specified that around 03:00hrs on Thursday, there was a significant change in seismicity whereby the station closest to the volcano began recording low-level tremors. Robertson, a geologist, said that a tremor is essentially a continuous vibration of the ground. The tremors were said to be continuous, with one even taking effect while Robertson was speaking to the press. Robertson described the vibrations as being “banded tremors,” which are usually associated with magma moving to the surface. Another thing that the monitoring team noticed Thursday morning was elevated and continuous emission of gas. These gases have been sustained, which is another indication that fresh magma is coming through, Robertson said.
He noted that the suggestion is that this magma is at or close to the surface and the possibility of the volcano exploding has increased significantly, based on the activity being recorded.
However, given the data, the monitoring team is still unable to say when an explosive eruption might happen, Robertson said, adding that what is clear is that the volcano has “upped the ante.”

“We are now into a period where we will not be surprised if sometime in the future, we have explosion or explosive activity,” he posited.
Robertson, however, said that his team would also not be surprised if the volcano continued to erupt effusively, as it has been doing for the last three months.
The geologist emphasised that an explosive eruption can happen any time now, adding that there could be more clear signals or an explosive eruption in the next few hours or days.
“The volcano has changed, it has given us a bit more signals,” he said, noting that the eruption began with effusion, there was then the VT earthquakes and now the tremors that are associated with steam being driven by magma. He said the possibility that the material now coming out of the volcano could have more energy, is what increases the chances of an explosive eruption.
Robertson said that his recommendation to the National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) is that preparations be finalised within a few hours, because scientists are unsure about the time scale of an explosive eruption. As he was speaking, the next period of banded tremors had started.
Meanwhile, Michelle Forbes, Director of NEMO, said that her team had been in discussions at Cabinet with various agencies to heighten preparation in the event that an evacuation order is given.

FULLY ACTIVATED
She said that disaster managers were preparing shelters, the response mechanism had been fully activated and that the national disaster management council would meet at 14:00hrs [on Thursday]. She said that communities north of Rabacca Dry River should be ready in the event that an evacuation order is given.
Forbes said that arrangements should be put in place to move elderly persons who need to move and that NEMO is working with agencies of the government and the private sector to have things in place in the event of an evacuation.
Meanwhile, Gonsalves made a stage three declaration, which under the NEMO Act orders the relevant agencies to prepare for a possible eruption of the volcano. The next stage is four, indicating that an explosive eruption is actually taking place.
The Prime Minister noted that no evacuation order had been given, but that there is a declaration that there is a substantial prospect that a disaster will strike. This alert stays within the framework of an orange alert, Gonsalves said, referring to the stage at which the alert has been since the effusive eruption began in December.

He said that his government will follow the science and will continue to take the advice of Robertson and his team of scientists.
“And if the occasion arises within the next few hours or the next few days, that it becomes necessary and desirable for an evacuation order to be issued, then it will be issued and this is the stage where that declaration is made within the framework of the law,” he said.
He said that Robertson had told the government that if the volcano erupts explosively, there might be a four-month period of evacuation. The Prime Minister said that his government has been in contact with friendly nations, including the United States, Cuba, and Venezuela to discuss possible assistance.
He said that Barbados and St. Lucia are willing to receive evacuees, but they will have to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Further, Royal Caribbean has indicated that it could get to St. Vincent by Wednesday night, a cruise ship that can house 1,500 persons, who will also have to be vaccinated before they are allowed to occupy the vessel.
Next Monday’s scheduled reopening of school has been suspended until further notice.