GUYANA’S future oil production outlook is strong, according to a number of reports by international organizations and independent energy analysts. The data can be confusing to understand, but most projections are based on current and expected future projects in Guyana’s Stabroek Block. The Stabroek is currently estimated to hold more than eight billion barrels of oil, after an 18th discovery was made just last month.

According to a report by Norway-based Rystad Energy, Guyana is expected to hit peak production in the mid-2030s at about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. Compared to current levels, this would make Guyana Latin America’s third largest oil producer after Brazil and Mexico.

An analyst at Wood Mackenzie recently stated that Guyana could become an even more prolific oil producer and the second largest in the region after Brazil, if large producers like Mexico and Venezuela continue to suffer long-term production declines.

Rystad and Wood Mackenzie’s estimates are based on full production at the three currently sanctioned projects: Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara, plus two additional future projects that will help boost production to the 1.4 million barrels per day mark.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is forecasting that Guyana will reach production levels of 750,000 barrels per day by 2025, with Liza Phase 1 producing 120,000 barrels per day and Liza Phase 2 and Payara each producing 220,000 barrels per day by 2022. Similar to Rystad Energy, the IDB’s total prediction is based on at least two additional projects coming online with capacity of about 120,000 barrels per day each.

That’s an important caveat to all these figures. They all rely on at least two projects that aren’t yet sanctioned and approved. Although 18 discoveries have been made on the Stabroek Block, only three projects are confirmed. Guyana has the resources, including top prospects like the Turbot and Yellowtail sites that could host more floating production vessels down the road. Some analysts have predicted as many as 10 might operate off the coast by the next decade.

But the challenge for Guyana will be making sure that these opportunities receive the substantial investment and government approvals they’ll need to get them up and running. If done right, with these possibilities comes the potential for substantially more production and higher revenue for Guyana.

It’s important to understand that oil production predictions are not set in stone. Many factors can make or break a project in the host country including oil prices, project costs, supply-demand forecasts, the investment climate among other considerations..

The predictions above only pertain to development in the Stabroek Block and are likely to increase with further development and exploration. Guyana’s other offshore blocks, including Canje, Kaieteur and Orinduik, may include additional development opportunities as exploration continues.

Sustaining that momentum is also crucial to allowing the emerging industry in Guyana that supports the oil industry to keep creating jobs. Thousands of people and hundreds of companies have already found roles in the industry. But new employment opportunities rely on a steady pipeline of new projects over the coming decades.

Because of the investments flowing into that sector, Guyana is already faring far better than the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean right now. The International Monetary Fund predicts the country to be the only one in the region to experience positive GDP growth, at 26.2 percent in 2020, despite lockdown measures and economic stagnation brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Irfaan Ali Administration appears to be aware of this opportunity—recently declaring that Guyana is “open for business.” Investors can understandably be wary after months of political chaos and regulatory delays as well as brazen proclamations that contracts should be ripped up and re-set or even put to a popular vote. It is up to the government to show it is serious about attracting the investment and exploration needed for Guyana’s next stage of energy development.