A FEW short years ago Guyana struck oil. This is the particular resource that has been touted as the world’s most valuable and profitable and has o been overshadowed only by data resources in the past three years or so. Many, however, question whether oil will result in disruption or development for Guyana.

Sometimes I find myself excited at the country’s development of this new industry and I love being able to learn about the industry and its ties to development. Other times, however, that excitement is tapered by the negative prospects that characterise this industry and those that underpin Guyana. Either way, Guyana is now an oil-producing nation and the most I can hope for is for the good to outweigh the bad.

Last week I attended an online forum organised by the University of the West Indies (UWI) Department of Government, Sociology, Social Work, and Psychology, at my sister campus in Cavehill, Barbados. The flyer was sent to me by one of the panellists and it immediately got my attention; the topic being explored was: “Disruption or Development? Exploring the potential impact of oil exploration in Guyana.”

With a topic like that as you can imagine, the academics dissected some aspects of Guyana- its economics, its politics, its culture and so much more. Common among each of the presenters drawn from different fields was one thing: oil would lead to much disruption in Guyana if the country does not manage itself well.

It wasn’t that the country needed to manage the industry well- as has been the mantra from experts advising Guyana; instead, it was that the country needed to manage itself, in its entirety, well.

An important consideration within the discussion was that Guyana is a society inherently characterised by ethnic and resource-driven conflict. And there is an interplay between these two that transcends to the political sphere and creates conundrums, not unlike the one we’re currently experiencing, for the society at large. This consideration, of course, is separate from a myriad of other concerns about the impact of oil on the environment and the economics of dependence.

According to one panellist, Professor Tarron Khemraj, the fight for political power by the ethnic groups (our entrenched and normalised system of politics) underpins the conflict between the ethnic groups because political power equates to which ethnic group gets to distribute and benefit from the distribution of resources, in Guyana’s ‘winner-takes- all’ system of governance.

The introduction of oil, an industry with prospects of huge incomes, is another addition (albeit, a seemingly larger addition) to the pool of resources to be shared.

Professor David Hinds, another contributor, acknowledged that Guyana’s development would always be stymied by the country’s inability to arrive at a national consensus, a national solution.

For him, oil in Guyana does not present new challenges to Guyana’s development. Rather, it allows for the exacerbation of old problems- those same ethnic divisions, caused by ethnic insecurities- that have permeated the country for decades now. Indian and African Guyanese, and the Indigenous Guyanese, he said, are in a perpetual struggle to preserve the groups’ identities, dignities and safeguard the distribution of resources.

It is interesting to think about how these ethnic and resource-driven conflicts have long underpinned Guyana’s society and are widely acknowledged, yet, when something like oil-or elections-comes around, they manifest in such ugly, exacerbated ways.

Interestingly, the academics proposed ways in which Guyana could perhaps overcome these inherent challenges. Chief among these suggestions was a system of shared governance. Now, shared governance is an idea that was perhaps the basis of the new political party A New and United Guyana (ANUG)’s platform, leading up to the elections. And for me, a shared-governance system- though not without its deficiencies- seems to be one of the better outcomes we can have from this year’s “mother of all elections.” From simple interactions with my family, friends, and colleagues, I can tell that whatever gains were made over the past few years in striving for some amount of cohesion among the groups has been greatly diminished. And I think that it doesn’t matter which political party assumes power, the insecurities will be profound.

I also watched a segment of a live discussion between Nigel Hughes and Dr. Vishnu Doerga. Here, Dr. Doerga shared that he doesn’t see himself as an Indo-Guyanese, but rather, just as a Guyanese. And honestly, I feel the same way. When I introduce myself to new persons in Trinidad, I don’t say ‘Hi I’m Vishani, an Indo-Guyanese’, I just say I’m Guyanese. But it was also interesting to hear Mr. Hughes say that not all ‘Guyanese’ feel that way. He contended that Guyana is not the national space many of us want to believe it is a geographical space shared by different groups with their own identities.

Assimilating all these conversations over the past week and thinking about the ways these ethnic and resource-driven conflicts have been manifesting in Guyana this year alone make me think much more about whether the oil is the agent of development I want it to be, or whether it is an agent of disruption, exacerbating the inherent struggles of Guyana.