IN light of new projections that Guyana could have 20,000 cases of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in a month, the Pan American Health Organisation/World Health Organisation (PAHO/WHO) has recommended that government establish or identify a specific COVID-19 hospital.

The Ministry of Public Health, using the PAHO/WHO method, had initially projected 1,400 cases, but a recent study done by PAHO/WHO found that with every case, another 2.5 persons will be affected within five days if there is no partial lockdown and if persons do not exercise effective social distancing.

“That 2.5, if I infect you, you infect 2.5 others and they infect another 2.5. Within a month we will get over 20,000; it a simple model but it makes a lot of sense,” said Resident PAHO/WHO Representative, Dr. William Adu-Krow, in a recent News Room report.
Dr. Adu-Krow had said if this should happen, five per cent or 1000 of those infected, would need intensive care and Guyana simply does not have the capacity for this.

On the point of building capacity and improving the local response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Adu-Krow, in an interview with the Guyana Chronicle, on Friday, said: “By way of government, a lot is being done, but a lot more needs to be done…PAHO has recommended a dedicated hospital for COVID-19 so people do not have to always call and say they did not get through.”

He said government has so far indicated that they are considering the idea and looking at the available resources before making a decision. Government’s role in this pandemic is to find the cases, isolate the cases, treat the cases and trace the contacts, said the PAHO/WHO representative.
The Government of the People’s Republic of China – the country where the disease originated –had constructed a hospital to deal specifically with COVID-19. Other countries, which might not have had the capacity to construct a hospital, have also identified specific facilities for treating COVID-19 patients.
Local health authorities have also identified a number of isolation, quarantine and COVID-19 intensive care facilities.

Just Thursday, President David Granger said national quarantine and isolation facilities have already been established at the West Demerara Regional Hospital; the (East Bank Demerara) Diamond Diagnostic Centre; the Georgetown Public Hospital Corporation (GPHC); the (Timehri) Madewini Youth Centre; the (East Coast Demerara) Ocean View International Hotel; the Cliff Anderson Sports Centre and the National Gymnasium. These facilities collectively, will be able to accommodate one thousand persons.

In addition to these measures, Dr. Adu-Krow said PAHO has advised government to establish mobile COVID-19 facilities and even establish specific facilities in communities, so that persons can report signs and symptoms of the disease directly to medical professionals. These facilities, he said, must have protection and control mechanisms in place. Those additional measures would supplement the Ministry of Public Health’s existing COVID-19 hotlines.
“We need to have the supplies and facilities because if we do not do anything and we get to 20,000 cases we are in big trouble…The beds, the ICU items may not be there and those are the things we need to think about…In terms of what government is doing, a lot has been done, but we need to do a lot more,” said the resident PAHO/WHO representative.
While a lot is expected of the government, Dr. Adu-Krow believes that not only the government should do things. Instead, he said, every section of society has to cooperate and work hard to ensure that Guyana flattens the curve (rate of infection) and avoid getting to 20,000 cases.

NOT BUSINESS AS USUAL
In expressing this point, the PAHO/WHO representative said: “Individuals have to practise cough etiquette; surfaces have to be cleaned after we touch them; and we have to stay home if we do not have business.

“I think the response from society has been so far been mixed. Yesterday (Thursday) I left the office late and I passed by the grocery shop and people were standing around and drinking beers…it cannot be business as usual… if we want to make an impact on the prediction, we have to change the way we do things.”

While some persons may act as though they are immune to the virus, Dr. Adu-Krow said there are others who are overwhelmed with fear and anxiety.
“People are spreading the anxiety further…we need to be mindful that the disease is serious, but we also need to make sure that we contain fear and anxiety because fear weakens the immune system,” said the PAHO/WHO representative.

An individual now panics because of a cold or a sore throat (common symptoms of the disease), something which never bothered them in the past. While it is understandable, Dr. Adu-Krow said persons should not panic and should instead seek help from the medical professionals, who will either determine if a COVID-19 test should be done or if it’s another infection.
On the topic of government’s testing capacity, the PAHO/WHO representative said government has enough test kits to do tests on persons who come into contact with an infected person or someone who may show symptoms of the disease. PAHO/WHO has outlined strict guidelines for testing.
Guyana has so far recorded 23 cases of COVID-19 with four deaths. A number of persons remain in isolation, home quarantine and institutional quarantine, as health authorities continue to monitor the national and global situation.
According to WHO, COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a newly-discovered coronavirus.

WHO said most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older persons and those with underlying medical problems such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.
WHO believes that the best way to prevent and slow down transmission is to be well informed about the virus, the disease it causes and how it spreads.

“Protect yourself and others from infection by washing your hands or using an alcohol-based rub frequently and not touching your face. The COVID-19 virus spreads primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes, so it’s important that you also practise respiratory etiquette (for example, by coughing into a flexed elbow),” WHO advised.