– Chris Ram 

AUDITOR and lawyer Christopher Ram has projected that Guyana’s share of oil profits will make up some 80 per cent of the annual government revenues within the next 10 years.

Writing in his weekly column in Stabroek News, Ram, who has been a consistent critic of the Profit Sharing Agreement with ExxonMobil, provides a table indicating that in the first year the government will receive US$249M to US$597M depending on an oil price of US$40 to US$80 per barrel.

Government take will increase in 2025, according to Ram’s calculations, to between US$936M up to US$4.3B once output is at 450,000 barrels per day. By 2030, the Government’s share would be between US$1.56B to US$7.44B. The projections also take into account Cost Oil (CO) ranging from US$30 to US$50.

Ram clarifies that these projections “relate only to the Esso/Hess/CNOOC and the discoveries announced to date.” They do not include, for example, the latest Hammerhead discovery that is said to open a whole new oil field south of Liza 1, nor the nearby Orinduik block held by Tullow and Eco Atlantic along with French major Total which is estimated to hold 3B barrels.

Ram’s projections also contradict the dire warnings of lawyer Melinda Janki who in a widely viewed social media video claimed “oil will make Guyana poorer not richer.” This is despite her being a legal advisor on the original 1999 deal with ExxonMobil.

Ram cautions how this wealth is spent and saved will be crucial and cited Chile and Botswana as two countries that have used very similar resources to transform their countries and the lives of their people.

The government’s Green Paper which is now out for widespread discussion and consultations, ahead of the crafting of legislation on a creation of a Sovereign Wealth Fund, addresses many of the issues associated with such resource windfalls. The paper sets out the three main criteria needed including: stabilisation of the economy, saving for future generation and spending on development of the people along with the diversification of the economy.

Attorney Melinda Janki, who was legal advisor to the 1999 contract, had said oil will make Guyana poor not richer