LAST week, ExxonMobil confirmed what outside sources have long been speculating—the total recoverable reserves in the Stabroek Block now exceed 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including natural gas and other petroleum liquids.

This represents an 800-million-barrel increase from Exxon’s previous estimate, and new production figures suggest that Guyanese government revenues will reach well into the billions over the next decade.

According to an Exxon press release, that increase “follows completion of testing at the Liza-5 appraisal well, a discovery at Ranger, incorporation of the eighth discovery, Longtail, into the Turbot area evaluation and completion of the Pacora discovery evaluation.”
This is the largest and most comprehensive estimate released for the Stabroek area and includes all of Exxon’s confirmed discoveries to date. It’s important to note, though, that this does not include other blocks owned by other companies, or reserves that are believed to be present, but have not yet been actually discovered.

Given the large number of successful wells in the Stabroek Block, Exxon announced that it could employ as many as five floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels to extract and process the oil.

That would include the FPSO currently being built for the Liza Phase 1 development, the larger FPSO planned for the Liza Phase 2 project and up to three more vessels to serve the Payara and the more recent discoveries.

More FPSOs is good news for Guyana. As Exxon country manager Rod Henson pointed out in an interview with OilNow, FPSOs represent long-term jobs.

That’s because crewing, supporting, and supplying these vessels will continue long after the initial surge in contracts for construction and supplies that comes with one-time investments such as drilling wells and establishing facilities.

All together, these ships could produce as much as 750,000 barrels of oil per day by 2025, in line with previous estimates from Norwegian oil and gas research firm Rystad. Rystad also forecasted tens of billions in estimated government revenue as a result of this potential output level.

The first two phases are already underway, with Liza Phase 1 currently in the well- drilling stage and Liza Phase 2 in the permitting and approval stage. The plans for a Payara Phase 3 and further developments, involving new fields in the Stabroek Block, are bolstered by news of the recent discoveries.

A production level of 750,000 barrels per day would place Guyana at the same output level as OPEC members such as Libya, according to reports from international media. In terms of reserve size, Guyana now ranks above established mid-level producers such as Gabon and Equatorial Guinea and on par with much larger regional competitors as Colombia.
By the mid-2020s, Guyana will produce more barrels of oil per capita than any other nation, placing Guyanese in an excellent position for the future and making it even more important that revenues are handled carefully, transparently, and responsibly.