In 2015, ExxonMobil discovered massive oil reserves off the coast of Guyana, altering the course of our nation in a matter of weeks, if not days.

Predictably, the media has pounced on the developments here. International coverage has consisted of a flood of information – economic projections, production forecasts, corporate buzzwords, financial market lingo. But the truth is, most of us still don’t know much about the global energy industry and its various components. And when you read something like “ExxonMobil is planning on developing Liza Phase One development using a 120,000 boepd FPSO built by SBM”…well that doesn’t mean much to most of us, does it?
That’s where this column would like to help. There’s enough coverage out there, in Guyana and internationally, to keep you reading for days. Here, you’ll hopefully find the one aspect that is missing: context.

In that respect, an overall view of where Guyana fits within the global energy industry is as good a place to start as any. As of 2017 Guyana’s proven oil reserves were 2.5 billion barrels (oil is most commonly measured in barrels, or bbl). More recently ExxonMobil has announced that the amount of total recoverable reserves offshore is estimated to be 3.2 billion barrels. In either case, if those predictions prove accurate, Guyana’s reserves would rank around 35th in the world. For context:
Rank Country Proven Reserves (bbl) 1 Venezuela 300,900,000,000 2 Saudi Arabia 266,500,000,000 3 Canada 169,700,000,000 4 Iran 158,400,000,000 5 Iraq 142,500,000,000 6 Kuwait 101,500,000,000 7 UAE 97,800,000,000 8 Russia 80,000,000,000 9 Libya 48,360,000,000 10 Nigeria 37,060,000,000 35 Guyana 3,200,000,000 36 Argentina 2,185,000,000 37 Colombia 2,002,000,000
Sure, 35th in the world sounds like a modest position. And as the chart above makes clear, the top 10 nations are far ahead of Guyana when it comes to proven reserves. But now look at the same list of countries with data on how many barrels each produces daily:
Rank Country Proven Reserves (bbl) Daily Production (bbl/day) 1 Venezuela 300,900,000,000 2,174,000 2 Saudi Arabia 266,500,000,000 12,090,000 3 Canada 169,700,000,000 4,987,000 4 Iran 158,400,000,000 4,669,000 5 Iraq 142,500,000,000 4,462,000 6 Kuwait 101,500,000,000 2,928,000 7 UAE 97,800,000,000 3,721,000 8 Russia 80,000,000,000 11,200,000 9 Libya 48,360,000,000 852,000 10 Nigeria 37,060,000,000 2,037,000 35 Guyana 3,200,000,000 0 36 Argentina 2,185,000,000 674,000 37 Colombia 2,002,000,000 875,000
Every other country on this list is already producing oil, with varying levels of efficiency, and enjoying the benefits that come with that production. Guyana is still in the early stages of development and production. One of the things that make Guyana truly unique is our potential.

The production targets set by ExxonMobil, operator of the Stabroek block, are extremely ambitious in both speed and size. Projections are that by 2020, Liza Phase 1 development will produce around 120,000 barrels per day. Liza Phase 2, with potential start up in 2022, could raise that figure as high as 340,000 per day. That level of ramp-up is almost unprecedented in the oil industry. Matt Blomerth of Wood Mackenzie’s Latin American Upstream Research arm said “It’s not often that a country goes from 0 to 60 so fast like this.”

It’s clear that ExxonMobil and producers across the globe see the discoveries here in Guyana as significant. But it’s important to keep in mind that there are literally hundreds of billions of barrels of untapped, proven oil reserves in the world.

While it’s been the topic of much debate in recent months, our government does deserve credit for attracting international business to Guyana and enabling the industry to move forward at such a rapid pace.

Oil revenues will be extremely important to our country and people in the near future, and here again we can look to examples across the globe for inspiration and guidance on how to best use and manage these revenues.