VOX Populi, Vox Dei is an old political phrase meaning, “The voice of the people is the voice of God.” I was chatting with a few young people recently about politics’ influence on policy in Guyana, in particular that it was quite strange that there have been only three turnovers of government in 50-plus years of democratic independence, and this phrase came up.

I think that in order to understand what administrations do, it is sometimes critical not merely to look at the most direct factors, like the specific political views of those in power, but the system within which that power exists. When government policies misfire but administrations remain in power, the above phrase points to this being because the true voice of the people, in its own way the highest law of the land, is being somehow submerged.

I think that lacking regular turnover locally has led to a chronic inability to readjust when development projects have gone awry. As a result, we allow these policy errors to build and build until they result in forced, massive adjustments and the related national costs. I’ve written that the sugar industry is the clearest current example of this, with very few major changes being made, despite years of decline, but there are numerous examples from much deeper in our history.

Even further, I have related in a previous column that a PPP/C electoral loss in 2020 will do a great deal for the party and policy in Guyana, but this could use additional detail. I hope to express how we can change our fundamentally unhealthy low-government-turnover approach to democracy and the key benefits this brings. We need to develop a more appropriate approach to reform, epitomised by the Chinese principle of the Mandate of Heaven.

Writer Kallie Szczepanski relates that this is a principle various new conquerors made use of, as a way of justifying their military campaigns and subsequent reforms. Essentially, the idea is that it is heaven which bestows a leader’s right to govern and that poor performance is a sign this mandate has been withdrawn. This thus allowed for conquerors to carry out reform-based transitions of power, with new leaders vested with a keen understanding of their predecessors’ errors.

While such turnovers of government took very long periods of time to take place in ancient China, an analogy to the democratic process is intuitive as they both hold to the tenet that faltering administrations should be replaced.

Because our politics has historically been factional, with loyalties not primarily based on development ideas, voters have supported their factions of choice fastidiously, even if they did not agree with the group’s particular governance philosophy. Do the leaders of the APNU+AFC, with their lawyer, doctor, civil servant and soldier senior party members, want to opt for government-led development strategies? Probably. Does the PPP/C leadership, with its numerous strong business ties at the senior party level, want to do the same? Probably not.

But while the APNU+AFC can say what they truly mean because this presents no conflict with their typical voting support (who have no objection to government employment), this is not yet the case for the PPP/C. They can’t come out and say that they want a smaller government, because many of their supporters depend on state intervention for employment, sugar workers who rely on government bailouts being again the best example of this.

I suspect that with the increasing importance of swing voters, the PPP/C wants badly to be freed of these historic commitments. How else are they to believably articulate the private sector-focused, growth-oriented messaging these voters might support? But while the APNU+AFC will be free to promote all manner of socially beneficial government initiatives with oil money, the PPP/C is not yet free to counter with contrasting ones that promote jobs by cutting taxes and shrinking the government. Time will tell whether this proves a critical handicap.

However, if the PPP/C does indeed lose the next election, swing voters should rejoice. With their old ties to the sugar industry cut by being unable to hand oil money to the sugar industry perpetually, the PPP/C should be able to appropriately refocus on growing the economy.

And this will mean that Guyana’s politics has collapsed into left wing (government-focused) and right wing (private sector-focused) governance philosophies, with current swing voters who are open to arguments from each side forming the decisive minority. There are few perfect things in governance, but in terms of promoting good development policy few surpass such a balanced system.

The Chinese Mandate of Heaven will manifest as an excess of government intervention will be met by electoral loss and cutbacks. The opposite will be true of excesses of business largesse, resulting in an environment in which politics is not factional, but truly based on competing ideas. This can only be expected to improve the quality of ideas put forward, thereby producing better governance by either party.

Finally, this will truly make manifest the phrase vox populi, vox dei, as this growing group of swing voters, who are both open to these competing ideas and best placed to appreciate every voting group’s point of view, determine the governing administration. At long last, after over 50 years of subduing debate in favour of factionalism, the voice of the people will be the voice of God.