THE World Bank, in its last updated report on Guyana (March 31, 2016), has projected that the economy is expected to grow by 4 per cent this year. According to the Bank, “Most of 2016 growth is expected to come from continued rapid growth of gold production and rebounding performance in construction and wholesale and retail trade industries.”
At the time of writing this editorial (July 11), APMEX listed the price for an ounce of gold on the world market as US$1,357.30.
Aurora and Troy Resources have recently commenced mining, and are expected to significantly boost production. The construction industry has been most notable in the area of housing. The impact of the wholesale and retail industries can readily be seen in building and furnishing materials, agricultural products, and foods.
In the agricultural industry, notably, rice and sugar have been adversely affected by changing weather patterns. The sugar industry continues to haemorrhage from bad policies, and remains reliant on the injection of funding from the State to the tune of billions.
Unemployment remains a sore issue. Though the State lacks modern and reliable data-tracking technology, TradingEconomic.com has unemployment averaging around 21 per cent, and a recent Caribbean Development Bank report has placed youth unemployment at 40 per cent.
It should be said, for the accurate recording of Guyana’s history, that the APNU+AFC Administration has inherited this problem. That being said, the responsibility is now theirs to fix.
High unemployment has an impact on economic opportunities; in that where there is scarcity in disposable income, it negatively impacts purchasing power and the spin-off of direct and indirect employment and economic opportunities. In this sort of environment, people can hardly save; and those who can, out of fear, hold on to their money or move it abroad.
At the political level, Leader of the Opposition, Bharrat Jagdeo, has made known that he has advised members of the business community to withhold their money; which, according to him, is to prevent these persons from being accused of engaging in illegal activities and being targeted by Government.
The informal economy is still here with us, to the extent that it sticks its neck out and competes and intermingles with the formal economy. In the circumstances, the activities of those producing or benefiting from the informal economy cannot be considered legitimate, and are not eligible to be counted.
Outside of formally gauging the strength of the economy through measurements such as growth rate, inflation, and stability of the dollar, the strength of the economy is gauged by employment figures. The mere idea that Guyana does not report monthly job figures and unemployment rate makes it difficult to scientifically track and interpret these indicators.
As the nation evolves, this is an area that the Government may find worthy of examination and rectification, given its scientific premium in national planning, which may also offer incentive and potential for skills training to meet present and future employment demands.
In the absence of scientific data-gathering on employment figures, the next best gauge is the compilation of expressions and feedback gathered from the people — including the employed, wholesalers, retailers and investors.
Though this may not necessarily be accurate, and given the partisan politics that characterise this nation -– where it is considered taboo to give credit to a rival party or group, or to criticise the party or group supported — there is a widely-held view that the economy is sluggish.
And it is this perception, real or perceived, that Government and its attendant economic agencies should seek to address through assurances supported by evidence — making known or rolling out its developmental plan, which may also include some form of stimulus or massive job creation projects.
In June last year, Education Minister Dr. Rupert Roopnaraine, in an address to graduates of the Nations University/Australian Institute of Business MBA programme, had referred to the human capital flight, drawing on a 2009 World Bank Assessment Report citing that 89 per cent of tertiary graduates are fleeing these shores. Compounding this is the secondary schools that are churning out thousands of graduates every year, many of whom cannot find work.
Acknowledging the flight of our human capital, accompanied by a plan to retain it, may also present hope that not only employment and economic opportunities can be sought, but where confidence exists, people are inclined to invest; want to throw their support behind a plan; and stay and work for the development of self and country.
Where neither of the foregoing exists, people will continue to lose hope — which can increase flight and the surfacing of Man’s most basic of instincts.
