Analysis by Rickey Singh
ON THIS Christmas Day, there are sharply contrasting political moods among member states of our Caribbean Community, including Jamaica, Haiti, Barbados and Guyana. In Jamaica, where Christmas carolling has been competing with electioneering clamour and music, the conversations in homes across the nation can hardly avoid speculation on the likely outcome of this Thursday’s general election for a new 60-member House of Representatives.
At the time of writing, two established polls were divided in  assessments, pointing to a virtual neck-and-neck outcome between the incumbent Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and its challenger, the People’s National Party, while another reputable poll gave an estimated four per cent lead in favour of the PNP.
Either way, the declared results of the latest polls could not have warmed the hearts of JLPites. That state of play, however, was prior to last week’s debate between new Prime Minister and JLP leader, Andrew Holness, and the PNP’s leader and former short-term Prime Minister, Portia Simpson-Miller.
Historic in its live broadcast across the region, the debate did not receive a high rating from either influential private sector or leading media sources in relation to inspiring new ideas for social and economic changes. The differences in leadership style as well as content of messages offered, or in responses to questions, continue to be discussed.
In contrast to a seemingly too cautious Prime Minister Holness, the PNP’s Simpson-Miller may have done well in making clear her preference for a Jamaican Queen as Head of State instead of maintaining the constitutional status quo with a British Monarch—as continues to be case in too many CARICOM states.
Nevertheless, at the same time, Simpson-Miller, reputedly the PNP’s “tough road-runner”, perhaps created an unnecessary political burden by her bold position about discrimination against homosexuals, and a preparedness to include gays in her Cabinet should her party win this week’s election.

Haiti and Suriname
Across in Haiti, where the citizens of that most populous member state of CARICOM continue to grapple with the grim social and economic realities of that horrendous January 2010 earthquake, Christmas is being celebrated,  for the first time, under the presidency of former so-called ‘bad boy’ pop star,  Michel Martlley.
Even, that is, as controversy persists over claimed excessive political influence from Washington on a Port-au-Prince administration in the determination of economic management and post-earthquake national reconstruction of Haiti.
And in Suriname, known for the richness of its very diverse ethnicities and cultures, Christmas celebrations will be under the new presidency of Desi Bouterse, the former army commander who has had a long spell in the wilderness of opposition politics after a period of political turmoil, followed by an impressive showcasing of electoral democracy and improved governance.
Bouterse is certainly not allowing carping criticisms from his detractors about his controversial politics of the past to deter him from moving Suriname forward in a politically stable environment. Next February, he is scheduled to host and chair the first of CARICOM’s two Heads of Government Meetings for 2012.

Guyana and Barbados
In neighouring Guyana, where the incumbent People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) retained convincingly the Executive Presidency with its enormous constitutional powers, but lost its parliamentary majority by one seat in the 65-member National Assembly, there continues to be manoeuvrings between the opposition parties — A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) and Alliance for Change (AFC)– over the coming election of a Speaker for the new Parliament.
The ceremonial opening of Parliament, following the November 28 poll, has been mutually agreed to be delayed by the Government and Opposition until early next month. But they remain divided over the election of a Speaker, with the PPP wishing to nominate Ralph Ramkarran, a well-known senior counsel who had served throughout the past 19 years in that office while that party held decisive majorities. The AFC and APNU are yet to agree on a common candidate between them.
Latest indication from the AFC’s presidential candidate for last month’s poll, Khemraj Ramjattan, is that it would nominate Moses Nagamootoo—a pre-election defector from the PPP—as Speaker, while APNU strongly favours its candidate, Deborah Backer, who, like Nagamootoo, is also a lawyer and former parliamentarian.  A compromise is expected to be reached over the holidays.

Compromise challenge
But it is in Barbados, more than in Guyana at this time, where the necessity for compromise within the incumbent Democratic Labour Party (DLP) and the administration headed by Prime Minister Freundel Stuart is urgently required for a restructured Cabinet of ministers well ahead of new parliamentary elections, due by another 13 months.
As noted in an earlier article last week, goodwill and political maturity would be essential to reach a compromise well ahead of arrangements for a new national poll. This compromise would have to be reflected in the composition of Stuart’s reshuffled Cabinet against the backdrop of an internal “leadership” squabble that is now a matter of national discourse.
Last weekend, Stuart had made a stern warning that “heads will roll…coup or no coup,” amid reports of the unofficial circulation of a draft letter, though unsigned, by 11 identified MPs, seeking an “urgent meeting” with the Prime Minister to discuss a “leadership style” of concern to members of the ruling DLP and general supporters of the government.
An expected regular weekly Cabinet meeting on Thursday did not take place, but there was an earlier meeting of ministers instead at Illaro Court—official residence of the Prime Minister. Since then, there have been no statements from either the Prime Minister or anyone from the so-called “rebel wing” of the Cabinet.
The  delay in the Prime Minister making, before Christmas, his widely expected Cabinet reshuffle must be a sigh of relief, and not only among those who expect to be either reassigned new portfolios or, worse, be dismissed.
Further, there are other parliamentarians—either neutral in the “leadership dispute”, or openly in Stuart’s corner — who feel that the avoidance of a hasty move by an angry Prime Minister could still provide opportunities for reconciliation and healing before the next general election.
As earlier noted, “compromise” is the only option for Stuart’s DLP administration. Both the Prime Minister and his critics, in and out of the government, would know that whatever the nature of an expected resolution, damage control will be quite a formidable challenge with so many embarrassing and unpleasant claims in the public domain, and an opposition Barbados Labour Party (BLP) readily anxious to take advantage of them all.
Clever politician as he may be, Stuart would also be aware that his political options are quite limited in the current depressing economic environment ahead of a new general election.
His next move for an inevitable, restructured Cabinet could well determine a new leadership style to both accommodate internal dissent and sufficiently satisfy a very sophisticated electorate at the coming parliamentary poll. An astute politician, time will be the best judge of his “leadership” delivery capacity.