Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh has reported a half-year economic growth of 5.9% for this year, with all the major sectors showing impressive growth except sugar which is now showing encouraging signs of recovery. This is extremely good news and further evidence that our macro-economic management is on a sound footing which has been acknowledged by all the main International Financial Institutions.
What is remarkable about this growth is the fact that it has been achieved in a period of heavy global economic turbulence, whereby many economies are struggling to grapple with the world economic crisis.
Notable too is the fact that this growth is above the predicted global economic growth for this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the global economy will grow faster this year than expected, revising its growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.4%, but warned of a two-speed recovery as advanced economies grow slower than emerging ones.
It said Europe’s economic health was weak, and said the size of the bank rescue fund should be increased.
Emerging countries, however, should see growth of 6.5% this year and a similar expansion in 2012, the IMF said.
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said US growth was projected to reach 3%, up from the previous estimate of 2.3% published in October.
The IMF estimates UK growth will be 2%, unchanged from its previous forecast.
And there was also no change in the 1.5% growth forecast for both the eurozone and for Japan.
The IMF said in its report: “In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks.”
So it is clear that in the present circumstances our economy has performed well and it is clear when compared to larger and advanced industrialised countries, its performance is even more impressive.
The mid-year report said that, as a result of this positive performance and given the updated outlook for the various productive sectors, the economy is projected to grow by 5.1 percent in 2011. The report said that the non-sugar sector is projected to grow at 3.4 percent, revised upward from the original projection of 4.6 percent and 2.8 percent at the time of the budget of 2011. Export earnings expanded by 34.6 percent to US$533.1 million.
The report said export earnings from sugar increased by 32.4 percent to US$50.1 million, reflecting a 30.4 percent increase in quantity shipped to 99,738 tonnes.
It added that in the first half of 2011, the sugar industry showed tentative signs that the path to recovery has commenced.
“The sector returned a 2011 first crop of 106,871 tonnes, reflecting a 30.5 percent increase over the first crop of 2010 and the best first-crop performance since 2004,” the report said.
The statistical facts show irrefutably that not one or two of the major sectors are responsible for this impressive growth, but rather all the major sectors.
It would be interesting to see what the cynics among us would come with. It is likely that they would try to contend that the figures are not accurate and there is need for independent verification! But they should know that the IMF and World Bank representatives are here and if the figures are inaccurate, these representatives will be the first to challenge them.
