Climate Change Highlights
No. 1: Office of Climate Change
THE Office of Climate Change (OCC), in a previous series of articles, provided a general overview of climate change, and introduced Guyana’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) while identifying the priority areas for implementation over the next two years.
The OCC now begins a weekly series that highlights key developments in the field of climate change internationally, leading up to the UN Climate Change Conference, which will take place in Cancun, Mexico in December this year, as well as highlighting developments locally.
Week of August 1-7, 2010
National: On the local scene, the Hydrometeorological Service (HMS) of the Ministry of Agriculture held a stakeholder consultation on an Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) Phase Out Management Plan (August 10-11). HCFCs are a major Greenhouse Gas (GHG) responsible for climate change. While the consumption of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has been phased out in Guyana to a large extent, HCFCs are currently being used locally in the refrigeration, air-conditioning and other sectors. Based on inputs received at this consultation, the HMS will finalize and submit to the government its HCFC phase out plan.
International
IEA Report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that China’s use of coal, oil, wind and other sources of power more than doubled in the past decade to reach the equivalent of 2.26 billion tonnes of oil in 2009, creeping past the United States total of 2.17bn tonnes. China, however, has maintained that it is the second largest user of power, behind the U.S.
UN Secretary-General’s High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing (AGF)
The UN Secretary-General’s High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing (AGF) on which President Bharrat Jagdeo is a member, delivered its third briefing to UNFCCC parties on 5 August 2010, on the sidelines of the UNFCCC talks in Bonn, Germany. The AGF aims to assist the UNFCCC process by identifying sources of financing to fight climate change. Its final report is expected to be submitted to the UN Secretary General by the end of October. The AGF must deliver an analysis of financing options that are technically sound and politically viable, and that add up to $100 billion per annum by 2020.
UNFCCC Negotiations
By far the most significant climate event over the last week was the UNFCCC negotiations in Bonn Germany August 2-6.
Following the Copenhagen talks in December 2009, negotiators have been trying to reach a consensus on a package of measures that would stabilize global warming at 2 degrees or less compared with pre-industrial levels.
But negotiators in Bonn were divided on even the form of a global agreement. Developing countries want to maintain the Kyoto Protocol by having a second commitment period after the first expires in 2012, and to have a separate agreement that governs mitigation actions, adaptation, technology transfer and financial resources to assist developing countries. Developed countries prefer to abandon the Kyoto Protocol and have a single agreement that applies to all countries – rich and poor. There was no progress on this fundamental issue in Bonn, though it should be noted that the European Union has indicated that it is willing to consider a dual approach.
Another divisive issue that has beset the negotiations is the principle of common but differentiated responsibility. Developing countries hold that while all have some responsibility for combating climate change, the developed countries caused the problem and so they should shoulder the greatest responsibility by setting and adhering to legally binding targets for emissions reduction, and providing the financial resources to help developing countries adapt and further mitigate. Developing countries feel that they should not be held to the same standard as developed countries, but can commit to certain actions that deviate from business as usual.
The talks in Bonn saw no progress in the targets that are required for stabilising global warming. Pledges amount to 12-18% reduction over 1990 levels, whereas 40% is required to stabilize at 2 degrees warming. Further, the 12-18% figure is effectively less than half that amount when special crediting rules are taken into account.
A significant component of the rules that govern the formulation of these targets relates to the accounting of emissions/credits from forest management and other land uses – commonly referred to as LULUCF. There are serious loopholes in these rules. Developed (Annex 1) countries who use these rules to calculate their targets have been trying to create other rules which afford them the same loopholes to under report their emissions. Coming out of Bonn, negotiators are still locked in a seeming impasse on which LULUCF rules should be applied to target formulation.
Another related issue under mitigation that intensified in the Bonn meeting is that of equity in the allocation of the remaining atmospheric space on a per capita basis, strongly articulated by the BASIC group consisting of China, India, Brazil and South Africa. This argument holds that if the available space left in the atmosphere for emissions (the so-called development space) is divided up on a per capita basis to arrive at a 2 degree rise by 2050, then the industrialized countries would get 16% of that remaining space, and the developing countries would be entitled to 84%.
This argument is supported by most developing countries, but is not very popular with developed country negotiators. The BASIC group has indicated that the principle of equity in the allocation of the 2010-2050 carbon budget will be a pre-condition for a global agreement. This signals a potential log jam in the negotiations in the run up to any global agreement, but also provides leverage for developing countries at the negotiating table in Tianjing, China in October.
But this is not to say that there was no progress in the Bonn negotiations. Areas such as adaptation, vital to low lying vulnerable countries such as Guyana, technology transfer, REDD Plus and capacity building, have seen much progress in the text to the point where most believe that these areas are ready for a COP decision and incorporation into a global agreement.
The area of finance has also seen progress in the June meeting as well as in the last meeting in Bonn. Agreement has been reached on the form of the Financial Mechanism and its relation to the Conference of the Parties, with fine details to be worked out in China and Cancun.
The REDD Plus text, up to a week ago, was among the most mature for a COP decision and Agreement. However, Saudi Arabia, on behalf of many oil states, made a tactical move and bracketed almost every paragraph in the text, basically re-opening those previously agreed paragraphs for renewed discussion. The reason, not spoken but understood, was to gain leverage in China to include carbon capture and storage, as well as response measures, both of which favour oil states.
Guyana’s lead negotiator, who tracked all of the REDD Plus negotiations (and finance), collaborated with other rainforest countries in getting the original REDD Plus text re-inserted as an Option B. The original REDD text will therefore carry forward to the China meeting.
The state of play, post-Bonn
The general state of play in the LCA negotiations at this point in time is that few, if any, expect that there will be a legally binding agreement (LBA) in Cancun. The EU has explicitly said it will not be possible. Other developed countries, including Australia and the U.S., envisage a politically balanced set of decisions for Cancun. The Me
xican COP presidency has declared that an LBA is not being sought in Cancun. The Alliance of Small Islands Developing States, the African Group and the LDC group are maintaining their call for an LBA in Cancun, though internally they recognize it may not be likely.
What therefore is possible in December in the Cancun World Conference of the Parties? Many believe that a balanced set of COP decisions on areas that are well advanced in the negotiations, plus a political mandate to negotiate an LBA in 2011, and a political mandate for focussed work in 2011 for a second commitment period for the KP, is a realistic option.
With regard to the basket of COP decisions mentioned above, these could include adaptation, technology transfer, capacity building, REDD Plus and Finance.
With the REDD Plus text presently under brackets, much negotiating will have to be done with the oil states vis a vis Carbon Capture and Storage and response measures to be able to lift the brackets before the high level segment in Cancun.
The next negotiating meeting will be held in China in October of this year. This meeting will provide just six days of intense paragraph by paragraph negotiations to narrow down the options enough to enable the political segment in the Cancun meeting to make the hard decisions.
Other climate-related events
Russia has been experiencing record breaking high temperatures, with Moscow topping 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees C). Drought has sparked hundreds of wildfires in forests and dried peat bogs, blanketing Moscow with toxic smog. The Russian capital’s death rate rose to 700 people a day at one point, according to the Associated Press.
In Pakistan the heaviest monsoon rains on record – 12 inches (300 millimeters) in one 36-hour period – have swollen rivers and caused widespread flooding of thousands of villages, As of August 14, the floods had killed 1,600 and left 14 million homeless or otherwise adversely affected. It is Pakistan’s worst natural disaster ever.
China is witnessing its worst floods in decades, particularly in the northwestern province of Gansu. There, floods and landslides last weekend killed at least 1,100 people and left more than 600 missing — feared swept away or buried beneath mud and debris.
These weather-related cataclysms fit patterns projected by the IPCC, i.e., “more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming.”
Here in Guyana, we have been experiencing significant changes in our established weather patterns as well.
Prepared by the Office of Climate Change
August, 2010
For additional information, please contact:
Office of Climate Change, Office of the President
Shiv Chanderpaul Drive, Georgetown
Tel. 223-5205
Email: info@lcds.gov.gy , Web Site: www.lcds.gov.gy
[1] http://climate-l.org/2010/08/06/high-level-advisory-group-on-climate-change-financing-briefs-unfccc-parties/
