The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon contributes significantly to seasonal climate fluctuations in many regions of the globe, often with substantial implications for human populations and the environment. Most climate model simulations are predicting that the warmer temperatures will persist in El Niño regions over the remainder of the austral summer, followed by a return to neutral conditions by winter 2010.

The ensemble mean predictions from POAMA, ECMWF, UKMO and the NASA Goddard models indicate a reasonably rapid cooling of Nino3.4 toward neutral conditions during autumn, while NCEP CFS, JMA and KMA predict a more gradual decline.

The effects of El Nino is creating havoc for agriculture in many parts of the world and as such global food out put may decline which will consequently send food prices climbing. Of course, in such a situation the world’s poor will be hardest hit and this could trigger a spiral of poverty.

In some countries conditions have become so critical prompting environmental groups to seek a moratorium on large-scale mining to mitigate the impact of El Nino.

Abigail Kwok in an article: “Green groups seek mining moratorium to mitigate El Niño effect” reports:-
“Environmental groups on Thursday called for a moratorium on large-scale mining, particularly in agricultural areas, to mitigate the impact of El Niño on agriculture.”

“The groups want a stop to mining activities in the dry-spell affected provinces of Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Iloilo, Negros Occidental and South Cotabato.

“Provinces presently in dry spell like Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, and Nueva Ecija, which host big mining operations will have better chances of coping with the water stress if mining moratorium will be immediately imposed,” said Divina Luz Lopez, national coordinator of the rural development organization PhilDHRRA.”

“Lopez said most of these provinces “significantly contribute to our country’s agriculture and fisheries sector.”

“To impose a mining moratorium in these areas in this time of crisis will send out a strong message that government is smartly addressing the crisis to mitigate El Niño impacts, which will favor majority of the Filipino people and help the sector our economy highly depend on,” she said.

“The national anti-mining alliance Alyansa Tigil Mina said that most of the mining operations in the country are situated in watershed areas.”
“The El Niño phenomenon has put watersheds in dry spell in different parts of our country. Mining is a water intensive industry and mining operations and/or tenements are located in watershed areas,” said ATM national coordinator Jaybee Garganera.”

Here in Guyana the effects have begun to bite with the supply of irrigation water drastically reduced as the conservancies continue to dry up due to the prolonged dry season. Fodder for livestock has also been severely curtailed and our major crops sugar and rice are under severe threat. These factors will have long term implications for food output, the national economy and the livelihood of farmers.

However, the government has not sat idly by in the prevailing circumstances, but instead has taken a proactive and hands on approach to bring some degree of relief to farmers. And in this regard several initiatives have already been implemented or are in the process of implantation. The most recent is the innovation of the rice straw/molasses/urea mixture to produce livestock feed to ensure there is an adequate supply.

Agriculture Minister Robert Persaud disclosed that, “This exercise is privately owned. Government now has to gather a very rudimentary type of technology and we are now looking to import another five of the machines used to bale the rice straws and this will be very useful, when we are dealing with  either the El Nino dry weather conditions or during the flood conditions.”

He noted that since there is difficulty in accessing feed materials for cattle, there should be more intense husbandry and proper flock management by creating feed pens instead of having animals roaming.

He stated that in addition to this exercise benefiting livestock farmers, government has also embarked on a rigorous cultivation programme which would put less pressure on irrigation needs. This has begun in Regions Two and Four and is scheduled to commence in the others regions shortly. “This will allow us, when some areas are harvesting, to divert resources and even the water we have to areas where we need and where the rice and other crops are at different stages. So this type of activity is important in our part of our world and in managing the El Nino season,” he said.
Earlier President Bharrat Jagdeo announced a $285M package which would be disbursed through the Ministry of Agriculture to support farmers in this extremely difficult period.