THE ruling ANC won the April 22 election but they lost support from the 2004 election. The victory and loss of support were not surprising to pollsters and political analysts. I visited South Africa twice over the last five years and during each visit it was evident that voters were becoming increasingly disenchanted with the ANC. But voters told me there was no alternative to the ANC because the other parties are racially or tribally based. In published reports, including one in Chronicle, I estimated the ANC losing about 5% support in the elections compared with 2004 when it won 70% of the votes.

The party actually lost only 4%, which though small, is significant in that the ANC has been gaining support since multi-racial elections were introduced in 1994. The results may not be interpreted as a mandate to introduce changes to the constitution which many voters feared.

When I was in South Africa last year, voters expressed widespread disenchantment with the ANC. Voters are disappointed with the governance of the ANC which has been caught up in endemic corruption. The New York Times on April 22 carried a report that said half the South Africans feel the country is worse off today than under apartheid – a far cry from the excitement that followed an end to official racism just two decades ago. Voters are disappointed with the governmentxs handling of crime and its mismanagement of the economy with unemployment at nearly 45%. Indians, in particular, complained about being targeted for racial attacks. At the same time, however, voters, included Indians, also indicated that there was no alternative to the ANC as the other parties lacked the appeal of the ANC to move the country forward.

My analysis of the voting trends and interviews with South Africans showed the ANC losing support among all ethnic groups but gaining among tribal Zulu voters. The latter were leaning towards Jacob Zuma, a fellow Zulu, who was the ANC Presidential candidate. The previous two Presidents, Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, were from the Xhosa tribe. Last weekxs election showed the IFP, the party of Zulus, lost support to the ANC securing less than 5% of he votes compared with 7% in 2004.

I indicated in my published commentaries last week that the ANC would win hands down because the opposition parties were in disarray and voters do not have much confidence that the other parties have what it takes to govern the nation.

At any rate, the opposition parties are xethnicallyx and or class aligned and divided while the ANC is a multi-national party with support from all ethnic groups and classes. But for the party to succeed, it must take measures to end corruption and govern from the centre instead of pursuing a leftist agenda and tinkering with the constitution to give the ruling party more power.

I should note that South Africa has an electoral system similar to Guyana’s in that seats are allocated based on percentage of votes. However, the parliament of 400 M.Ps elects the President.
VISHNU BISRAM