–says non-oil economy up 14 per cent, unemployment more than halved as economy’s prospects remain ‘highly favourable’

GUYANA’S economy continues to expand at one of the fastest rates in the world, and the gains are broad-based and reaching ordinary households, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its 2026 Article IV report, concluded by the Executive Board this week.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by over 19 per cent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 per cent in 2023-24, and is projected to grow by 22.3 per cent in 2026. The Fund said the outlook remains “highly favourable.”

The growth is not confined to the oil sector. Non-oil GDP grew by 14 per cent in 2025, led by construction and supported by agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and is projected to average about seven per cent a year over the medium term.

Oil production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day, and the IMF expects it to reach 1.2 million barrels per day by 2031. Private credit grew by about 19 per cent, supporting business activity, and the report says non-oil growth is increasingly expected to be driven by the domestic economy.

That expansion is showing up in jobs. The IMF cites data indicating that unemployment fell from 12.8 per cent in 2020 to 6.2 per cent in 2025, while employment rose by nearly 60 per cent, driven by construction, education and mining.

The Local Content framework has also supported business expansion, with services growing by about eight per cent in 2025 as more industries became eligible, including supply vessels, freight forwarding and inspection services.

The Fund credited large public investment in people for improved social outcomes. Stunting rates have fallen, infant mortality continues to decline, and secondary completion rates and education scores are improving.

Free university education introduced in 2025 has contributed to about a 45 per cent increase in new student enrolment.

Support for household incomes has also been significant. The IMF reported that since 2021, government transfers have doubled real incomes for the elderly and supported a 65 per cent real income increase for employed workers.

The 2026 Budget renewed the universal adult cash grant of GY$100,000, first introduced in 2025.

In 2025, the government also transferred GY$10 billion to the National Insurance Scheme to fund one-off payments of between GY$260,000 and GY$650,000 to about 25,000 seniors who had fallen short of the 750-week contribution threshold for a pension. The scheme itself is in surplus, and the IMF said it has generated surpluses since 2022.

Households have also been shielded from the worst of global price pressures. Inflation was contained at 3.3 per cent in 2025, and the IMF said fiscal and supply-side measures, including VAT exemptions and subsidies, have cushioned the effect of higher global food and fuel prices.

In an IMF analysis of the passthrough from international food prices, Guyana’s headline inflation responded at roughly half the rate seen across comparable economies, a result the Fund attributed partly to local food supply and price-smoothing measures. Food makes up about a third of the consumer price basket.

Further, the Gas-to-Energy project, which the report said could potentially double electricity production and halve its cost, is expected to considerably reduce fuel-based power generation by 2027.

The IMF said Guyana is advancing toward a cleaner, more cost-effective energy mix, while remaining at the forefront of market-based forest conservation.

It has already sold over 12 million forest carbon credits at an average of about US$22 per ton, and the government is spending 0.2 per cent of GDP on sea defences.

The report also highlighted the digitalisation of public services: a nationwide electronic health records system, with about 80,000 children already screened, and a social security beneficiary database that has cut benefit processing times by an average of 50 per cent.

The IMF paired this record with advice on keeping it durable, noting that available indicators do not point to clear overheating, but recommends close monitoring of wage growth and competitiveness.

Inflation is projected to rise to 4.1 per cent in 2026, and the IMF also recommended gradually replacing broad price-mitigating measures with better-targeted support, and a formal medium-term fiscal framework to continue protecting the gains for future generations.