THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Guyana’s economy will continue its strong expansion over the next five years, driven by rising oil production, sustained public investment and continued growth across the non-oil economy.
In its 2026 Article IV Mission Staff Concluding Statement, released on Friday following a mission to Guyana from July 20 to 31, the IMF described the country’s economic outlook as “highly favourable”, forecasting that the non-oil economy will grow by an average of about seven per cent annually over the medium term.
According to IMF, Guyana’s economy continues to expand at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity. Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 percent during 2023–24.
Oil production exceeded expectations and surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025—an impressive 35 percent increase over one year, with similar volumes recorded in the first half of 2026. Encouragingly, broad-based growth in the non-oil economy continued at about 14 percent, with construction remaining the largest driver, and agriculture, mining, and manufacturing also contributing meaningfully.
IMF said that these trends “broadly continued in the first half of 2026 though some sectors were affected by heavy rainfall. Robust growth was also reflected in a stronger labour market, with unemployment down at 6.2 percent by the end of 2025. Average inflation was contained to 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices.”
“The economic outlook remains highly favourable. Oil production is expected to continue expanding, and the non-oil economy is projected to grow by about 7 per cent on average over the next five years as the government continues its ambitious plans to address infrastructure and developmental needs,” the IMF said.
According to the Fund, the positive outlook is underpinned by continued expansion in the petroleum sector, with new oilfields coming onstream and existing developments increasing production.
The IMF said the external position is also expected to remain strong as higher oil output boosts export earnings and strengthens the country’s fiscal position.
It noted that persistently high oil prices would further improve government revenues, while, as oil companies complete cost recovery, a larger share of petroleum income will flow directly to Guyana through the Natural Resource Fund (NRF).
The Fund highlighted that the government’s continued investments in infrastructure, health, education and other development priorities are expected to support sustained growth in the non-oil economy and further diversify economic activity.
While maintaining an optimistic outlook, the IMF said risks remain broadly balanced amid continued global uncertainty.
On the upside, it noted that additional oil discoveries, stronger-than-expected construction activity and sustained public investment could result in even faster economic growth over the near term.
However, the IMF cautioned that persistently high oil prices could also create inflationary and competitiveness pressures if not carefully managed, while oil price volatility poses fiscal risks.
The Fund also warned that adverse climate events remain a significant downside risk, particularly for sectors such as agriculture.
To support long-term sustainable growth, the IMF recommended that Guyana continues to pursue prudent macroeconomic policies, prioritise productivity-enhancing public investments and strengthen fiscal buffers through continued savings in the Natural Resource Fund.
It also encouraged ongoing efforts to diversify the economy by investing in human capital, expanding employment opportunities, strengthening agriculture and improving workforce skills to meet the demands of the country’s rapidly evolving economy.
The IMF said that Guyana is well positioned to maintain one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, provided it continues balancing rapid development with sound fiscal management and long-term economic planning.