GUYANESE at home have an interest in what is taking place in the United States (U.S) probably more than what is taking place in any other Western country. It is reasonable to think that this interest is because of the large Guyanese population living there; because that society is seen as the bastion of democracy; because of its superpower status; and because of its global socio-economic and political impact.
Thus when, on Monday in Iowa, the process began to elect the presidential nominees from the Democratic (D) and Republican (R) parties, Guyanese and others sat up and paid attention. Amongst the field are the so-called establishment candidates, Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) and Mr. Jeb Bush (R). When persons made known their desire to run last year, the names Clinton and Bush were seen as heirs apparent to the nominations, and some felt it would have been an easy walk or coronation parade for these two persons.
In our December 12, 2015 editorial, ‘The U.S. Presidential election and terrorism’, it was made known that “a day can be a lifetime in politics, and a statement can build or reverse the fortunes of a politician.” Monday night’s elections proved so. Mr. Donald Trump, whom prior to E-Day the polls had shown was the Republican frontrunner, proved otherwise. Trump was trounced by Texas State Senator Ted Cruz (R). The former received 24 percent of the votes, while the latter received 28, and Bush mustered three.
Marco Rubio, (R) Florida State Senator and the youngest contender, captured 23 percent of the votes.
Digging deeper into the numbers, Trump received more votes in Iowa than any presidential Republican candidate ever, outside of Cruz. Having attracted global attention and condemnation for his positions on Muslim and immigration issues, which also saw the British Parliament debating a motion to ban him from entering that country; and having never run a political campaign or contest before, Trump’s placement cannot be ignored.
Known for his bombastic style, those who initially felt he would have imploded have been confounded. And in spite of his newness to the political scene, he is capable of mounting a serious political campaign, even surprising persons with his gracious acceptance speech.
Cruz, whom it is felt has his own problem with constitutional legitimacy to run as president, given that he was born in Canada to a mother of U.S citizenship, also proved that he is a force to be reckoned with by being able to man a good ground game that proved to his benefit. This gentleman has, time and time again, also changed his position on immigration reform and treating with the millions of undocumented persons presently residing in the U.S.
The Democratic field presented its own excitement. When Mr. Bernard “Bernie” Sanders, Independent State Senator from Vermont, entered the race, he was seen as a long shot. Initial polls showed him at 40-50 percent down, and it was felt that the self-proclaimed socialist who is calling for a political revolution could not pull it off at all. Monday night had to have created a situation wherein heads will be scratching, and some may even roll.
While Sanders’s campaign has secured financing primarily from small donors, and the Clinton juggernaut is seen as unbeatable, even bringing in personnel who worked on President Obama’s campaigns, the two contenders are a virtual tie. Both candidates, with results not yet officially declared, are at a 50 percent tie — Clinton (701) and Sanders (697).
Iowa runs a caucus, i.e. system of local gatherings wherein voters decide on the candidate(s) to support and select delegates for nominating conventions. Delegates are awarded based on Proportional Representation. Republicans had 30 delegates up for grabs, with Cruz scoring 8 and Trump and Rubio 7 each. On the Democratic side with 52 delegates up for grabs, Clinton is said to secure 30 and Sanders 21. Three of Clinton’s delegates were won by the toss of a coin. Yes, with the toss of a coin!
And this is so given that, in three precincts, the votes were virtually a tie between her and Sanders, and a way was found to break the tie.
Demographics, ground-game, momentum, finances, caucus vs primary, candidates’ messages, and ideological/values leaning of states also play into the dynamics of the candidates’ polling and votes. The fluidity of the situation can see anything. The nomination process is far from over. Next Tuesday, February 9th, it is New Hampshire which will run a primary (i.e. a state-wide voting process through secret ballot). Presently, the polls are showing Sanders (D) and Trump (R) leading the respective fields.
