FEW nations can claim the economic turnaround that Guyana has achieved. A country once strangled by one of the heaviest debt burdens in the world, and once in default, now stands as a model of fiscal recovery.
President, Dr Irfaan Ali’s recent remarks on the “oil era” should be read as a statement of confidence and as a challenge to use that confidence wisely.
The numbers speak plainly. Public and publicly guaranteed debt fell from 47.4 per cent of GDP in 2020 to 24.3 per cent in 2024. That is a dramatic shift in four years, and it did not happen by accident.
It reflects economic reform, rescheduling, large-scale debt cancellation, and a rapidly expanding economy. Oil has accelerated the trend by swelling GDP and government resources, but the foundations were laid by deliberate policy choices.
The international verdict reinforces the domestic story. The IMF’s 2025 debt-sustainability analysis rates Guyana at lower risk of external and overall debt distress than in 2023, when the risk was moderate. The fund’s baseline projection anticipates public debt declining after 2026 and stabilising at about 25 per cent of GDP through 2034.
For a developing country, that is the kind of predictability investors and lenders prize. Even without an IMF programme, the government continues to engage with the fund and submit to its assessments, which signals transparency and a willingness to be held accountable.
Creditworthiness is not merely a badge of honour; it is a practical asset. As the president noted, it demonstrates the country’s ability to repay and opens the door to a wider range of investment and lending vehicles, from US Exim to the Qatari investment fund and others.
Add the Natural Resource Fund, whose existing and projected holdings can help cover external debt, and Guyana has built a cushion that few of its peers could imagine. That cushion creates room to invest in health, education, social welfare, infrastructure and agriculture, the pillars on which lasting prosperity rests.
What makes the president’s message especially valuable is its discipline. It would have been easy to celebrate falling debt ratios and stop there. Instead, Dr Ali insisted that new financing be managed carefully and that investment be tied firmly to productivity.
This matters enormously. History is filled with resource-rich nations that mistook windfalls for permanent prosperity, spending freely without building productive capacity. Guyana’s leadership is explicitly rejecting that path.
The emphasis on the private sector is equally welcome. Government can build roads, schools and hospitals, but it is businesses that create the bulk of sustainable jobs. By stressing that the private sector must continue to expand, the president is pointing towards an economy that does not depend on oil alone, one where Guyanese entrepreneurs, farmers and workers drive growth long after the barrels have been counted.
Challenges remain and vigilance is essential. Debt ratios can drift, and projections are only as good as the policies that underpin them, but the direction of travel is clear and encouraging. Guyana has earned its improved standing through hard work and sound choices.
The task now is to ensure that every new dollar borrowed or invested is judged by what it adds to national productivity and to the lives of ordinary Guyanese. If that standard holds, the oil era will be remembered not for its revenues, but for what the country built with them.
