A DRONE strikes a refinery thousands of miles away and weeks later a Guyanese mother pays more for a loaf of bread. That chain of events is the reality of a world where supply chains are only as strong as their weakest link.

Guyana’s leaders deserve credit for cushioning citizens so far, but this latest shock shows that relief measures are not enough. The country has to finish building the food and fuel resilience it has only just begun.

The scale of the disruption is serious. Russia has historically been the world’s third-largest producer of refined oil products, but in June its refinery throughput fell to its lowest level in more than 20 years, roughly 30% below a year earlier. Half of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries have cut or completely halted output this month following Ukrainian drone attacks.

Add the turmoil in the Gulf, and the picture darkens further, showing refineries are also offline in the Middle East due to Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure, and one analyst estimates about 8% of the diesel needed to meet global demand is currently disrupted.

In the United States, diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time ever.

For Guyana, diesel is not an abstraction. It moves the ships that carry our wheat, the trucks that haul goods from the wharf to the market, and the machinery that runs our farms and mines.

When shipping costs climb, importers pass them on, and flour, bread, pastries and pasta follow.

Those staples weigh heaviest on households with the least room in their budgets.

To be fair, the government has not been idle. It moved early to reverse fees, cut taxes and pour billions into food production and infrastructure, while holding inflation near four per cent. Given the successive blows of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, climate disasters and Middle East instability, that is a genuine achievement that many larger economies failed to match.

But tax cuts and subsidies are shock absorbers, not permanent solutions, and government is aware. They buy time; they do not change the underlying exposure.

Every relief measure funded from the Treasury is money that could have gone into roads, schools or the very agricultural projects that would reduce our vulnerability in the first place. Relief should be the bridge, not the destination.

That is also why the wheat trials matter so much. In May 2022, Guyana received 49 lines of wheat from the Government of Mexico to begin a trial phase, and by late 2023 President Ali himself had acknowledged that proving wheat can be grown was one thing, but growing it competitively was another matter entirely.

Now it’s time to move forward and look at what yields can be achieved? At what cost per tonne? When, realistically, could local wheat meaningfully displace imports, even partially? This is a crucial component of any food-security strategy.

The same urgency applies to alternatives already within reach. Cassava, rice and breadfruit flours can partially replace wheat in many baked goods.

Local millers and bakers should be encouraged, through targeted incentives and public procurement for school feeding and government institutions, to build demand for blended flours. That creates markets for farmers now, not a decade from now.

There is also an uncomfortable irony that cannot be ignored. Guyana is now a significant oil producer, yet it remains exposed to global diesel shortages because it exports crude and imports refined fuel. Continued national conversations about domestic refining capacity, strategic fuel reserves and long-term supply agreements are necessary.

The lesson of this crisis is simple: global shocks are no longer occasional, they are constant. Guyana has the money and the land to insulate itself. What it needs now is co-operation and continued innovation to ensure that the country stays ahead.