RECENT international commentary has revived a familiar question: can Guyana avoid the resource curse? It is a fair question, but the discussion should begin with another fact. Oil has already changed the scale of what Guyana can finance and build. The responsibility now is to ensure that this opportunity outlasts the petroleum itself.
Guyana produced its first oil in December 2019. Since then, the country has become one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and the largest oil producer per capita. Once constrained by high debt, limited public resources and major infrastructural gaps, Guyana is now classified by the World Bank as a high-income economy. That classification does not mean that every household is prosperous, but it illustrates how sharply the country’s economic position has changed.
This shift rests on an unprecedented level of offshore development. ExxonMobil Guyana and its co-venturers have committed more than US$60 billion to seven government-sanctioned projects in the Stabroek Block, including Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead. This represents the largest private-sector investment programme in Guyana’s history and demonstrates the scale of the productive capacity being built offshore.
Developing an offshore oil project is complex and capital intensive. Long before the first barrel is produced, companies must invest in exploration, engineering, subsea systems, production facilities, logistics, technology, safety systems and skilled personnel. Those investments make production possible. Production then generates royalties and profit-oil revenues for the country.
This creates a clear chain: investment enables production, production generates government revenue and that revenue expands the country’s ability to finance development. Since production began, cumulative petroleum receipts deposited into Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund (NRF) have exceeded US$9 billion. This figure represents total deposits over time, rather than the fund’s current balance, because authorised transfers have been made to support national budgets.
Petroleum revenues have therefore created greater fiscal space for national priorities. Roads, bridges, housing, healthcare, education, energy projects and social programmes can now be pursued on a scale that would have been difficult to imagine before oil production. For ordinary Guyanese, however, the real measure of progress will not be production figures or export values. It will be whether these resources produce better schools, more reliable healthcare, improved public infrastructure and wider economic opportunities.
The effects are also visible beyond government revenue. Offshore operations have increased demand for local goods and services, contributing to activity in banking, construction, logistics, transportation, hospitality, real estate and professional services. Local businesses have expanded their capabilities, new companies have entered the market, and more Guyanese have gained opportunities to participate in the country’s changing economy.
The long-term value of this period should not be measured only by the oil produced today. The skills, knowledge, business capacity and infrastructure developed alongside the industry can continue creating value after individual projects are completed. Guyana must use the sector’s growth to prepare people and businesses to compete in a broader, more diversified economy.
Guyana’s production has also added a significant, new source of crude to international markets during a period of geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruption. This gives the country growing relevance in global energy security. The more important national test, however, remains how the resulting revenues and economic activity are used at home.
Oil alone cannot guarantee national progress, but the resource curse is not inevitable. The outcome will depend on the quality of Guyana’s institutions, the transparency of public decisions and the country’s ability to plan and implement effectively. Protecting the environment, strengthening accountability and ensuring that development reaches communities across the country must remain central to that effort.
The NRF provides an important mechanism for managing petroleum revenues, but the fund is only one part of the task. Lasting progress will depend on how carefully resources are allocated, how well projects are executed and whether public investment produces measurable improvements in the lives of Guyanese. Strong institutions and skilled people will be as important as the revenue itself.
Oil has widened Guyana’s choices, but it cannot make those choices for us. Strong governance, careful planning and effective implementation will determine whether today’s revenues become tomorrow’s schools, hospitals, businesses and skilled workforce. The opportunity exists. Guyana must make it last.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.