—highlights ‘dual-track’ growth as energy producers outpace regional peers

GUYANA’S oil-driven economic expansion is not only accelerating at a record pace but is now being underpinned by massive revenue inflows, placing the country firmly ahead of its regional peers even as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) grapples with sluggish growth and persistent structural constraints.

According to the World Bank’s Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update – April 2026, Guyana remains the standout performer in the region, with projected growth of 16.3 per cent in 2026, continuing a multi-year trend of extraordinary expansion. This double-digit growth is forecasted to continue in 2027 to 23.5 per cent.

The report states that “the oil-driven expansion of Guyana… is widening divergence relative to economies that depend heavily on tourism,” reinforcing the country’s position as a clear outlier in a region struggling to gain economic traction.

OIL REVENUES HIT G$159B IN FIRST QUARTER

That macroeconomic performance is being reinforced by substantial fiscal inflows. Guyana recorded more than G$159 billion in oil revenues during the first quarter of 2026, according to figures published in the Official Gazette, with receipts covering the period December 30, 2025, to March 31, 2026.

The Ministry of Finance reported that the bulk of the inflows came from profit oil earnings across ExxonMobil-operated developments, including the Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity and One Guyana floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels.

Individual cargo payments ranged between G$12.3 billion and G$15.1 billion, reflecting sustained production levels offshore.

A significant portion of the earnings came from a G$23.1 billion royalty payment tied to fourth-quarter 2025 production, under Guyana’s fixed two per cent royalty mechanism within the production sharing agreement.

Under the country’s petroleum framework, profit oil represents the government’s share of crude after cost recovery, with revenues deposited into the Natural Resources Fund (NRF) and reported on a cash basis.

The World Bank’s analysis aligns directly with these developments, pointing to Guyana’s oil sector as the engine behind its rapid economic expansion.

With multiple FPSOs now operational and production continuing to scale up, Guyana has emerged as one of the fastest-growing oil producers globally.

The report highlights that this expansion is not only lifting national output but is also skewing regional averages, creating what it describes as a “dual-track outlook” in the Caribbean.

Resource-rich economies such as Guyana are accelerating, while tourism-dependent countries face mounting external pressures, including weaker demand, high import costs, and climate-related vulnerabilities.

REGION STUCK IN LOW GEAR

Outside of Guyana, the economic picture is far less dynamic. The World Bank projects regional growth of just 2.1 per cent in 2026, noting that LAC remains “one of the slowest-growing regions in the world,” with income per capita expected to see minimal gains.

The report identifies weak investment as the central constraint, stating that “the binding constraint is investment,” as firms remain cautious amid global uncertainty and unclear policy signals.

In effect, while consumption is keeping economies afloat, the lack of capital formation is undermining long-term growth prospects.

The report also flags a volatile global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, fluctuating energy prices, and cautious monetary policy.

However, for energy exporters like Guyana, these dynamics present a mixed but potentially advantageous outlook.

Higher energy prices can strengthen fiscal revenues and external balances in the short term, although the World Bank cautions that sustained gains will depend on policy discipline and the ability to manage volatility.

Beyond the immediate oil boom, the World Bank points to a broader opportunity window for Guyana and the region.

It notes that shifts in global supply chains and the energy transition are increasing LAC’s strategic relevance, given its resource base and relatively clean energy profile. However, the institution is explicit: unlocking long-term benefits requires structural reforms.

Countries must strengthen institutions, improve infrastructure, invest in human capital, and reduce policy uncertainty to attract sustained private investment.

MANAGING THE OIL WEALTH

Guyana’s government has maintained that the Natural Resources Fund is designed to ensure transparency and accountability in managing oil revenues, with withdrawals subject to parliamentary approval under the governing legislation.

All proceeds, profit oil and royalties, are deposited into the Fund, with figures subject to reconciliation based on international price adjustments.

Earlier this month, World Bank Country Director for the Caribbean, Lilia Burunciuc, had emphasised that Guyana has moved from being one of the lowest-income economies in the hemisphere to one of the fastest‑growing in the world, while seeking to ensure that the benefits of growth are broad‑based and sustainable.

Burunciuc recalled first visiting Guyana almost five years ago, just as the country was preparing to receive its first oil revenues. She noted that at the time, Guyana’s income per capita was among the lowest in the region.

“Almost five years ago, Guyana was the first country I came to in the entire region, and it was the moment when Guyana discovered oil and was preparing to start receiving the revenues, but it was still a country which had one of the lowest income per capita in that hemisphere,” she said.

The World Bank official said the transformation since then has been striking, citing rapid growth, improved living standards, and a visible shift in the physical landscape.

Recent years have seen major investments in transport and hospitality infrastructure, including new bridges, upgraded roads and hotel developments, helping to support both domestic connectivity and international business.

“I could feel the change in the air. The change was coming. And five years later, when I see the country, the country has changed,” she said adding: “The country is very different from what it was five years ago. I can only imagine what this country will be in another five years or 10 years. The development is remarkable. I must commend the government for investing in what really matters when you have an economy that gets significant revenues.”

The government has stressed that oil earnings are being channelled into long‑term development, rather than short‑term spending.

Joining the discussion, Senior Minister in the Office of the President with Responsibility for Finance, Dr Ashni Singh, had pointed out the importance of directing resources into areas that will sustain growth beyond the oil era.

This approach he stressed aims to avoid the pitfalls often associated with resource‑rich economies, by diversifying the economic base and equipping citizens with the skills needed for new and emerging sectors.

“What we’ve been able to do in more recent years, particularly over the last five years, is we’ve been able to dramatically accelerate our investments in building a more resilient Guyana,” he said.

A cornerstone of Guyana’s strategy has been a major push to strengthen human capital, with the government explicitly asking the World Bank to serve as its lead development partner in this area. Alongside human capital, Guyana has embarked on an ambitious infrastructure drive, much of it supported by development partners.

Notable advances include, new and upgraded roads and bridges, improving connectivity between key economic zones and communities. The development of new hotel and airport facilities, signalling growing investor confidence and rising visitor demand.

Agricultural infrastructural projects, such as improved roads and connectivity are helping farmers to access markets more efficiently and stimulating rural economic activity.