FINANCE Minister, Dr Ashni Singh’s recent statement that Guyana has designed its macroeconomic framework to handle fluctuations in global commodity prices further emphasises that the PPP/C has positioned Guyana to avoid the resource curse that has affected developing nations for years.
With oil prices averaging only US$68 per barrel in 2025, which is below expectations, his focus on economic resilience seems not just sensible but necessary, although it warrants closer examination.
The Finance Minister’s main point is clear. Guyana cannot build prosperity on the belief that oil will always be profitable. This honesty is refreshing, especially since Guyana’s economy currently relies on commodities and is open to external shocks. The key question is whether real structural resilience has replaced unrealistic hopes in policy-making.
The government’s commitment to tracking international economic trends and including global factors in its planning, shows an understanding of this vulnerability. However, being aware without diversifying is not enough to provide real protection.
While non-oil sectors grew by 12.6 percent in mid-2024 and agriculture, manufacturing, and fishing saw positive developments, the government remains committed to ensuring better performances are recorded as the country progresses.
True resilience requires a systematic approach to developing alternative revenue sources that can handle declines in oil revenue.
Look at the real effects of recent price changes. With crude oil expected to be 15.7 per cent lower than 2024 levels, petroleum revenue deposits for 2025 are only slightly above early estimates due to lower crude oil prices.
This shows that even with increased production and more lifts of profit oil, pricing pressures limit revenue growth. The government’s plan is aimed at maintaining stability rather than speeding up growth.
This is a reasonable approach for a small economy and will be even more successful once there continues to be communication about what resilience really means.
The strategy for accumulating the Natural Resources Fund offers some reassurance. There is no doubt that the government’s framework will prove resilient in practice, not just in theory, especially when oil prices hit.